Briefing
Ultra-long-term Bitcoin holders, defined as those who have not moved their coins for five years or more, are now aggressively distributing their supply into market strength. This behavior confirms a major supply rotation is underway, where the highest-conviction investors are realizing profits and transferring ownership to newer market participants. This year, over $52 billion worth of Bitcoin dormant for five or more years has been revived, with the 10+ year cohort seeing its highest movement ever, proving that the most patient supply is now actively for sale.
Context
The market is constantly wondering if the current price strength is sustainable or if the highest-conviction investors are finally using the rally as an exit opportunity. The core uncertainty is whether the current demand is strong enough to absorb distribution from the deepest-pocketed, most patient holders without a significant price correction.
Analysis
The key indicator is Revived Supply by age band, which measures the total value of coins that move on-chain after a period of dormancy. When a coin dormant for five years moves, it signals a high-conviction holder is finally taking profit or rebalancing, which increases the available circulating supply. The current spike of $52 billion in 5+ year old supply moving in 2025, including a record amount from the 10+ year cohort, demonstrates that the deepest-pocketed, most patient investors are actively distributing their holdings. This pattern historically clusters around major market tops as the long-term supply is absorbed by new demand, creating a structural headwind for the price.
Parameters
- Revived Supply 5+ Years (YTD 2025) → $52 Billion – The total value of Bitcoin that has moved after being dormant for at least five years.
- Revived Supply 10+ Years → Highest amount ever in a single year – The movement of the oldest, most patient Bitcoin supply.
- Single Whale Movement → 80,000 BTC ($9.5 Billion) – A massive, single-entity movement contributing to the spike in ancient supply distribution.
Outlook
This massive supply rotation creates a structural headwind for price growth because new demand must absorb the significant distribution from the most patient holders. The near-term market direction depends entirely on the strength of new capital inflows, such as institutional ETF demand, to absorb this volume. Readers should watch for a sharp decline in the Revived Supply metric as a confirming signal that the profit-taking wave from these ultra-long-term holders has ended, which would clear the path for renewed upside momentum.
Verdict
The movement of $52 billion in ultra-long-term supply confirms a major profit-taking and distribution phase is underway.
