Bitcoin Market Stabilizes Fragilely above Key Holder Cost → Insights

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Briefing

Bitcoin’s price has found a delicate balance around the average acquisition cost of its short-term holders, currently near $111,000. This stabilization is fragile, with underlying data indicating a prevailing cautious sentiment among market participants. While some metrics, like spot momentum and futures positioning, show signs of recovery, a significant decline in trading volumes highlights a lack of strong conviction, proving that demand remains hesitant.

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Context

Many in the market are wondering if Bitcoin’s recent price movements signal a true recovery or simply a pause before further volatility. Investors seek to understand if the current price level represents a solid foundation for future growth or if it reflects lingering uncertainty and a lack of decisive demand. This data helps clarify the market’s underlying health.

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Analysis

The “Short-Term Holder Cost Basis” represents the average price at which newer investors acquired their Bitcoin; price hovering near this level suggests a critical psychological and financial equilibrium for these participants. Analysis of the past week reveals Bitcoin’s price oscillating around this $111,000 mark, indicating a fragile stabilization. Spot market momentum shows a mild recovery with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) moving towards neutral territory and the Spot Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) improving, signaling reduced selling pressure. However, declining trading volumes accompany this, suggesting that while selling has eased, new buying conviction is not robust.

Futures markets exhibit stabilization, with a modest rise in open interest and a recovery in Perpetual CVD, yet funding rates suggest reduced bullish enthusiasm. On-chain activity remains modest, with slight improvements in profitability metrics like Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) and Realized P/L, but without a significant surge in overall demand.

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Parameters

Key Metric → Short-Term Holder Cost Basis ($111,000)
Observed Price Pattern → Oscillation around Short-Term Holder Cost Basis
Spot Market Indicators → RSI (lifting towards neutral), Spot CVD (improving), Trading Volumes (declining)
Futures Market Indicators → Open Interest (modestly rising), Perpetual CVD (recovering), Funding Rates (reduced bullish sentiment)
On-Chain Demand & Profitability → Active Addresses (modest pickup), Transfer Volumes (easing), Fees (declining), Supply in Profit (mildly rising), NUPL (mildly rising), Realized P/L (mildly rising)
Timeframe of Analysis → Week 37 (leading up to September 9, 2025)

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Outlook

This fragile stabilization suggests that Bitcoin is at a critical juncture, where cautious sentiment could give way to either renewed demand or further consolidation. A sustained increase in trading volumes and a decisive move above the $111,000 Short-Term Holder cost basis could signal a strengthening market. Conversely, a breakdown below this key level, especially if accompanied by increased selling pressure, would confirm the dominance of bearish sentiment. Watching for a significant uptick in genuine spot buying activity will be key.

The Bitcoin market demonstrates a delicate equilibrium, holding above a crucial investor cost basis, but strong demand signals are absent.

Signal Acquired from → Glassnode Insights