Briefing
Bitcoin’s recent price decline has breached key short-term support levels, suggesting a full market reset is underway as new buyers capitulate. This movement indicates that the speculative froth has been cleansed, forcing the price down to the average cost basis of all economically active investors. The market is now poised at a critical on-chain support level, which historically acts as a strong price floor during bull market corrections. The most important data point is the True Market Mean at $81,700 , which must hold to prevent a deeper structural decline.
Context
The primary market uncertainty is whether the recent price volatility represents a healthy mid-cycle correction or the beginning of a prolonged bear market. Average investors are wondering if the current price level offers a true buying opportunity or if there is a much deeper floor yet to be found. This data answers that question by identifying the exact price point where the collective cost of the most engaged investors is currently located.
Analysis
The key indicator is the True Market Mean Price, also known as the Active-Investor Price. This metric measures the average price at which all coins currently considered “active” were acquired on the blockchain, effectively filtering out lost or dormant supply. When the market price falls to this level, it means the average active investor is at breakeven. Price dropping below this line signals extreme financial pain and often marks a final capitulation event.
The recent price action has fallen below the Short-Term Holder Cost Basis ($90,900) and the Active Investors Mean ($88,100). This shows that recent buyers are now underwater and selling at a loss. The True Market Mean at $81,700 is the next line of defense; defending this level confirms a structural bottom, while a break suggests a deeper, more severe correction is required to find demand.
Parameters
- True Market Mean Price → $81,700 → The aggregate average cost basis for all economically active Bitcoin supply.
- Short-Term Holder Cost Basis → $90,900 → The average acquisition price for investors who bought in the last 155 days.
- Active Investors Mean → $88,100 → The average cost basis for investors who have actively traded in recent months.
Outlook
The market is currently at a high-conviction support zone. The True Market Mean is expected to provide significant technical and psychological support, making a near-term bounce likely. A successful defense of the $81,700 level would confirm that the current drawdown is a healthy reset, setting the stage for renewed accumulation and the next leg up. The confirming signal to watch is a sharp increase in the Short-Term Holder MVRV Ratio, which would show that recent buyers are quickly returning to profit, signaling the selling pressure has fully exhausted.
