Bitcoin Recovery Faces Sell Pressure despite Macro Momentum → Insights

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Briefing

Bitcoin’s recent price recovery, reaching $116k, is encountering significant sell pressure despite broader macro-driven optimism. This indicates a fragile market where strong institutional inflows are being met with profit-taking, potentially limiting further upside. Weakening spot flows, softer funding rates, and rising profit realization collectively underscore this emerging vulnerability, suggesting a cautious outlook.

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Context

Is Bitcoin’s recent rebound sustainable, or are we approaching a period of correction? Investors are questioning the durability of this upward move, seeking clarity on whether the current price level can hold or if it signals an impending shift in market dynamics.

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Analysis

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) surged into overbought territory, indicating strong buying momentum and rapid price increases. However, the Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) weakened, which suggests that buying pressure is not as robust as selling pressure, or that sellers are becoming more aggressive. While significant ETF inflows show robust institutional demand, a rise in “supply in profit” and “realized P/L” means more investors are holding coins at a gain and are now taking those profits. This profit realization creates a selling pressure that contrasts with the macro-driven recovery, signaling a market benefiting from external news but facing internal headwinds.

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Parameters

Key Metric → Supply in Profit, Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL), Realized Profit/Loss
Observed Pattern → RSI overbought, CVD weakened, strong ETF inflows, increased profit realization
Core Data Point → Emerging sell pressure despite macro-driven recovery to $116k
Timeframe → Last week (leading up to September 15, 2025)

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Outlook

The near-term future of the Bitcoin market appears cautious, with potential for further consolidation or a retracement if demand cannot consistently absorb the ongoing profit-taking. A confirming signal to watch is a continued decline in spot trading volumes coupled with persistent high profit realization, which would indicate continued weakness. Conversely, a strong surge in active addresses and sustained funding rates could signal renewed market conviction and a more robust uptrend.

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Verdict

Bitcoin’s recent price recovery is built on a foundation of shifting sentiment and profit-taking, demanding sustained demand to avoid further downside.

Signal Acquired from → Glassnode Insights