Bitcoin's $115.2k Cost Basis: A Critical Support Test Post-FOMC → Insights

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Briefing

Bitcoin’s market shows a delicate balance after the recent FOMC meeting, with derivatives activity playing a significant role in price movements. While spot markets saw mild selling, perpetual futures absorbed liquidity through short squeezes, indicating speculative positioning. The market now faces a critical test → maintaining the $115.2k price level, which represents the average cost for 95% of all Bitcoin in circulation, as a failure to hold this key on-chain support risks a broader market contraction.

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Context

Many investors are wondering if Bitcoin’s recent rally has sustainable momentum or if it is merely a temporary bounce. The key uncertainty revolves around whether the market can absorb selling pressure and establish a firm foundation for continued growth, particularly after a major macro event like the FOMC meeting.

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Analysis

The “cost basis” is the average price at which a Bitcoin was acquired. When the current price is above the cost basis for a large percentage of the supply, it indicates that most holders are in profit. Bitcoin currently trades above the cost basis of 95% of its supply, specifically at $115.2k. This level acts as a psychological and structural support; holding above it suggests strong conviction and demand.

Conversely, falling below it can signal weakening sentiment and potential profit-taking, leading to further price declines. Leading into the September 17 FOMC meeting, Bitcoin saw moderate momentum. Derivative markets, including perpetual futures and options, became increasingly active. Perpetual Open Interest, which measures the total value of outstanding futures contracts, peaked at 395k BTC before settling around 380k BTC post-FOMC, indicating a flushing of leveraged traders.

Notably, short liquidations fueled initial upward moves, followed by long liquidations after a sharp price pullback. Options Open Interest reached a record 500k BTC, with a significant expiry on September 26, suggesting heightened potential for volatility as dealers adjust their hedges. This dynamic interplay between on-chain holder behavior and derivative market positioning forms the current delicate market balance.

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Parameters

Bitcoin Price Above 95% Supply Cost Basis → $115.2k
Perpetual Open Interest Peak → ~395k BTC
Perpetual Open Interest Post-FOMC → 378k → 384k BTC
Options Open Interest Record → 500k BTC
Key Options Expiry Date → September 26, 2025
Options Max Pain Level → ~$110k
Long-Side Max Pain → $112.7k
Short-Side Max Pain → $121.6k

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Outlook

The immediate future for Bitcoin depends heavily on its ability to sustain the $115.2k price level. If this on-chain support holds, it could reinforce demand-driven momentum and potentially extend the recent rally. However, a failure to maintain this level could lead to a contraction back towards the $105.5k → $115.2k range, where renewed selling pressure might emerge. Traders should closely monitor the impact of the upcoming September 26 options expiry, as its record size could trigger significant volatility as market makers rebalance their positions.

Bitcoin’s ability to hold its $115.2k on-chain cost basis is the defining factor for its near-term market direction.

Signal Acquired from → Glassnode Insights