# Bitcoin's $115.2k Cost Basis: Sustaining Momentum or Facing Contraction ∞ Insights

**Published:** 2025-09-19
**Categories:** Insights

---

![A detailed, close-up view shows a light blue, textured surface forming a deep, circular indentation. A spherical object resembling a full moon floats centrally above this void, symbolizing a digital asset experiencing significant price action or 'mooning' within the DeFi landscape](https://incrypthos.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/digital-asset-mooning-over-decentralized-exchange-liquidity-pool.jpeg)

![A striking blue, metallic hardware component, partially covered in a layer of frost and ice, is depicted against a neutral grey background. The object is angled dynamically, revealing intricate mechanical details and reflective surfaces](https://incrypthos.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/Cryogenic-Blockchain-Hardware-Module-Thermal-Management-Unit.jpeg)

## Briefing

Bitcoin currently trades above the $115.2k cost basis for 95% of its supply, a key level indicating that the vast majority of investors are in profit. This position suggests sustained demand-side momentum; however, a failure to maintain this level could trigger a market contraction. Derivative markets, particularly options, show record open interest, pointing to increased potential for volatility, with the September 26th expiry acting as a significant gravitational pull. The market’s stability hinges on [holding above](https://incrypthos.com/adoption/next-technology-holding-expands-bitcoin-treasury-via-500-million-stock-offering/) this critical $115.2k on-chain support.

![Vibrant blue and clear liquid dynamically splashes across dark, reflective metallic and matte surfaces, highlighting intricate fluid interactions. The scene features various hardware components, including vents and polished panels, set against a light background](https://incrypthos.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/High-Performance-Node-Infrastructure-Cooling-for-Transaction-Throughput.jpeg)

## Context

Many are wondering if Bitcoin’s recent rally is sustainable or if the market is poised for a correction. [Investors](https://incrypthos.com/news/investors/) are seeking clarity on whether current price levels reflect strong underlying demand or if they are vulnerable to profit-taking and leveraged unwinding. This data helps answer if the market has a solid foundation for continued growth.

![A detailed overhead perspective showcases a high-tech apparatus featuring a central circular basin vigorously churning with light blue, foamy bubbles. This core is integrated into a sophisticated framework of dark blue and metallic silver components, accented by vibrant blue glowing elements and smaller bubble clusters in the background](https://incrypthos.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/Automated-Market-Maker-Liquidity-Pool-Protocol-Execution.jpeg)

## Analysis

The “cost basis of supply” represents the average price at which all Bitcoin in circulation was acquired. When Bitcoin [trades above](https://incrypthos.com/research/optimal-mev-arbitrage-splits-trades-on-fast-finality-blockchains/) the cost basis of 95% of its supply, currently at $115.2k, it means almost all Bitcoin holders are holding unrealized profits. This metric acts as a powerful indicator of market health ∞ holding above this level demonstrates robust demand and investor conviction, fueling further upward momentum.

Conversely, falling below this threshold can signal weakening demand and increased selling pressure as more investors approach or enter a loss, potentially leading to a market pullback. The observed pattern shows Bitcoin currently holding above this critical $[115.2k level](https://incrypthos.com/insights/bitcoins-mvrv-ratio-nears-critical-115440-inflection-point/) following a post-FOMC rally, suggesting underlying strength but also highlighting a pivotal point for future price action.

![A close-up view reveals a sophisticated abstract mechanism featuring smooth white tubular structures interfacing with a textured, deep blue central component. Smaller metallic conduits emerge from the white elements, connecting into the blue core, while a larger white tube hovers above, suggesting external data input](https://incrypthos.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/modular-blockchain-design-interoperability-protocol-data-flow.jpeg)

## Parameters

- **Key Metric** ∞ Supply Quantiles [Cost Basis](https://incrypthos.com/news/cost-basis/)

- **Observed Pattern** ∞ [Bitcoin](https://incrypthos.com/news/bitcoin/) trading above the cost basis of 95% of supply

- **Core Data Point** ∞ $115.2k (Cost Basis for 95% of [Supply](https://incrypthos.com/news/supply/))

- **Timeframe** ∞ Post-September 17 [FOMC meeting](https://incrypthos.com/news/fomc-meeting/)

- **Derivative Market Indicator** ∞ Record 500k BTC [Options Open Interest](https://incrypthos.com/news/options-open-interest/)

- **[Options](https://incrypthos.com/news/options/) Expiry Event** ∞ September 26th (Largest in Bitcoin’s history)

![A complex, multi-component mechanical assembly, featuring silver and dark blue elements, is enveloped by a vibrant, translucent blue liquid, showcasing intricate details. The fluid exhibits significant motion, creating ripples and dynamic visual effects around the precisely engineered metallic parts, suggesting continuous operation](https://incrypthos.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/Decentralized-Protocol-Fluid-Dynamics-Illustrating-On-Chain-Liquidity-Mechanisms.jpeg)

## Outlook

This insight suggests that Bitcoin’s near-term future is at a critical juncture. Maintaining the $115.2k level is essential for sustaining the current upward trajectory. If demand remains strong and the [price](https://incrypthos.com/news/price/) holds, it could pave the way for further gains.

However, a decisive break below this support could invite a deeper correction. A confirming signal to watch is continued stabilization of Perpetual [Open Interest](https://incrypthos.com/news/open-interest/) and a reduction in liquidation events post-options expiry, which would indicate a more stable, less leveraged market.

![A white and metallic technological component, partially submerged in dark water, is visibly covered in a layer of frost and ice. From a central aperture within the device, a luminous blue liquid, interspersed with bubbles and crystalline fragments, erupts dynamically](https://incrypthos.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/computational-expenditure-dynamic-liquid-cooling-protocol-activation.jpeg)

## Bitcoin’s Ability to Hold above the $115.2k Cost Basis Is the Decisive Factor for Its Immediate Market Direction.

Signal Acquired from ∞ <a href="https://insights.glassnode.com/the-week-onchain-week-37-2025/?utm_source=incrypthos.com&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=noo-engine.com" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">glassnode.com</a>

## Glossary

<a href="https://incrypthos.com/adoption/next-technology-holding-expands-bitcoin-treasury-via-500-million-stock-offering/" class="glossary-item-box">

## holding above 

Next Technology Holding strategically integrates Bitcoin as a core treasury asset, leveraging a significant stock offering to fortify its digital balance sheet and optimize capital allocation. </a><a href="https://incrypthos.com/news/investors/" class="glossary-item-box">

## investors 

Definition ∞ 'Investors' are individuals or entities that allocate capital to digital assets with the expectation of generating a return on their investment. </a><a href="https://incrypthos.com/research/optimal-mev-arbitrage-splits-trades-on-fast-finality-blockchains/" class="glossary-item-box">

## trades above 

This research reveals that arbitrageurs on fast-finality blockchains maximize profit by splitting MEV opportunities into small, spam-based transactions, exposing critical flaws in current fee mechanisms. </a><a href="https://incrypthos.com/insights/bitcoins-mvrv-ratio-nears-critical-115440-inflection-point/" class="glossary-item-box">

## 115.2k level 

Bitcoin's MVRV ratio at $115,440 signals a pivotal moment, determining if the market sustains gains or faces a correction. </a><a href="https://incrypthos.com/news/cost-basis/" class="glossary-item-box">

## cost basis 

Definition ∞ The original purchase price of a digital asset, including any associated fees or commissions. </a><a href="https://incrypthos.com/news/bitcoin/" class="glossary-item-box">

## bitcoin 

Definition ∞ Bitcoin is the first and most prominent decentralized digital currency, operating on a peer-to-peer network without central oversight. </a><a href="https://incrypthos.com/news/supply/" class="glossary-item-box">

## supply 

Definition ∞ Supply refers to the total quantity of a specific digital asset that is available in the market or has been issued. </a><a href="https://incrypthos.com/news/fomc-meeting/" class="glossary-item-box">

## fomc meeting 

Definition ∞ An FOMC meeting refers to a scheduled gathering of the Federal Open Market Committee, the principal monetary policymaking body of the United States Federal Reserve. </a><a href="https://incrypthos.com/news/options-open-interest/" class="glossary-item-box">

## options open interest 

Definition ∞ Options open interest represents the total number of outstanding options contracts that have not been settled or exercised. </a><a href="https://incrypthos.com/news/options/" class="glossary-item-box">

## options 

Definition ∞ Options are financial derivatives that grant the holder the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell an underlying asset at a predetermined price before a specified expiration date. </a><a href="https://incrypthos.com/news/price/" class="glossary-item-box">

## price 

Definition ∞ Price represents the monetary value assigned to an asset or service in exchange for other goods or services. </a><a href="https://incrypthos.com/news/open-interest/" class="glossary-item-box">

## open interest 

Definition ∞ Open interest quantifies the total number of outstanding derivative contracts, such as futures or options, that have not yet been settled. </a>

**Tags:** [Investors](https://incrypthos.com/news/investors/), [Investor Behavior](https://incrypthos.com/news/investor-behavior/), [Cost Basis](https://incrypthos.com/news/cost-basis/), [Price](https://incrypthos.com/news/price/), [On-Chain Data](https://incrypthos.com/news/on-chain-data/), [Options Open Interest](https://incrypthos.com/news/options-open-interest/)	

## Discover More

- 
### [Bitcoin’s Post-FOMC Stability: Derivatives Influence Key On-Chain Support](https://incrypthos.com/insights/bitcoins-post-fomc-stability-derivatives-influence-key-on-chain-support/)
![A spherical object, partially fragmented, showcases a duality. One side features a white, textured, fractured surface, suggesting data fragmentation or token supply volatility. A central metallic button could represent a governance mechanism. The other side reveals a structured, metallic framework, embodying robust blockchain architecture and distributed ledger technology DLT. Its inner core glows with blue geometric pillars, signifying transaction data streams and cryptographic primitives.](https://incrypthos.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/decentralized-protocol-mechanics-digital-asset-fragmentation-visualization.jpeg)

Bitcoin holds above $115.2k with 95% of supply in profit, but derivatives activity signals potential volatility around upcoming options expiry.

- 
### [Coinbase XRP Supply Plummets: What’s Next for Liquidity?](https://incrypthos.com/insights/coinbase-xrp-supply-plummets-whats-next-for-liquidity/)
![A clear, complex, interwoven transparent structure dominates the foreground, resembling a sophisticated algorithmic framework. Behind it, a deep blue, blurred form suggests underlying data streams or a core digital asset pool. This visualization abstractly represents the intricate protocol architecture essential for decentralized ledger technology DLT. Its transparent nature reflects the auditability and immutability inherent in cryptographic primitives, while the interwoven design signifies robust interoperability and the secure execution of a distributed consensus mechanism within a blockchain network.](https://incrypthos.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/Transparent-Blockchain-Protocol-Framework-Algorithmic-Structure-Visualization.jpeg)

Coinbase's XRP reserves have sharply decreased, signaling a significant shift in market liquidity and potential future volatility.

- 
### [KindlyMD Stock Plummets 55% as CEO Advises Weak Hands to Exit](https://incrypthos.com/markets/kindlymd-stock-plummets-55-as-ceo-advises-weak-hands-to-exit/)
![Interconnected metallic segments form a robust blockchain network. A prominent Bitcoin node, marked by its iconic 'B' symbol, signifies a critical point within the decentralized ledger. Translucent blue connectors, with intricate cryptographic link patterns, visually represent data flow and transaction validation across the distributed network. These glowing elements emphasize the underlying consensus mechanism and ledger integrity essential for cryptocurrency operations and block propagation.](https://incrypthos.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/bitcoin-node-interconnected-distributed-ledger-network-architecture.jpeg)

KindlyMD's 55% share decline, catalyzed by CEO guidance, signals systemic re-evaluation of Bitcoin treasury firm risk profiles for institutional capital.

- 
### [Bitcoin Investors Selling Signals Ongoing Market Consolidation](https://incrypthos.com/insights/bitcoin-investors-selling-signals-ongoing-market-consolidation/)
![A sophisticated hardware wallet component showcases a central metallic rod emerging from a multi-layered cryptographic module. The assembly features a textured, granular ring, indicative of a tamper-evident seal, enveloped by reflective metallic panels and transparent elements. This secure element is precisely engineered for robust private key storage and seed phrase protection, vital for decentralized ledger technology. Its design suggests advanced quantum-resistant cryptography, safeguarding digital assets within a blockchain node or multi-signature device, ensuring distributed consensus.](https://incrypthos.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/secure-enclave-hardware-wallet-cryptographic-module-precision-engineering.jpeg)

All Bitcoin wallet sizes are currently net sellers, indicating the market is in a consolidation phase with a probable bottom at $107,000.

- 
### [Bitcoin’s Recovery Faces Fragile Sell Pressure](https://incrypthos.com/insights/bitcoins-recovery-faces-fragile-sell-pressure/)
![A close-up view reveals a complex modular blockchain infrastructure, featuring interconnected metallic and blue components. A central, prominent module, possibly representing a validator node or core processor, is surrounded by smaller units. These modules, signifying various network nodes or sharded components, are linked by intricate blue, red, and black wires, illustrating robust data flow and transaction pathways. The design emphasizes a decentralized network topology, highlighting protocol interoperability and cryptographic hash functions ensuring data integrity across the distributed ledger. This visual metaphor depicts advanced consensus mechanism operations and efficient transaction throughput within a scalable Web3 environment.](https://incrypthos.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/modular-blockchain-infrastructure-interconnected-protocol-nodes-and-data-flow.jpeg)

Macro momentum lifted Bitcoin to $116k, yet profit-taking and softening demand signals point to underlying market fragility.

- 
### [On-Chain Data Signals Bitcoin Rally despite Price Consolidation](https://incrypthos.com/insights/on-chain-data-signals-bitcoin-rally-despite-price-consolidation/)
![Intricate blue structures, densely covered in sharp white crystalline formations, evoke robust blockchain architecture. A transparent cylindrical element, suggesting a secure channel or liquidity pool, is partially visible, surrounded by granular white deposits. These formations symbolize meticulous cryptographic proof mechanisms and network validation processes underpinning decentralized ledger technology DLT. The composition highlights complex growth and immutability inherent in a distributed network, emphasizing digital asset security and precise smart contract execution.](https://incrypthos.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/decentralized-ledger-growth-cryptographic-proofs-cold-storage-wallets.jpeg)

Bitcoin's recent price pause masks strong underlying on-chain growth and widespread profitability, signaling an upcoming market upswing.

- 
### [Fed Rate Cut Boosts Crypto Market Confidence](https://incrypthos.com/markets/fed-rate-cut-boosts-crypto-market-confidence/)
![A sharp, faceted crystalline structure, resembling a prism or diamond, pierces a complex blue printed circuit board. The circuit board's intricate pathways and integrated circuits suggest a foundation for digital operations, perhaps representing the underlying infrastructure of a blockchain network. The crystalline element may symbolize the immutable, transparent, and valuable nature of digital assets or the cryptographic keys securing decentralized finance DeFi protocols. This juxtaposition highlights the intersection of advanced materials science and the architecture of distributed ledger technology, emphasizing precision and security in the realm of cryptocurrency.](https://incrypthos.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/Prismatic-Crystal-Interfacing-With-Decentralized-Ledger-Technology-And-Digital-Asset-Tokenization.jpeg)

The Federal Reserve's rate cut has fueled a "risk-on" environment, driving Bitcoin above $117,000 and lifting altcoin prices.

- 
### [Bitcoin On-Chain Data Signals Strong Bullish Momentum Ahead](https://incrypthos.com/insights/bitcoin-on-chain-data-signals-strong-bullish-momentum-ahead/)
![Two modular, cylindrical white and silver components are shown, featuring intricate internal metallic pins resembling data conduits. Blue translucent crystalline elements adorn their exteriors. These elements are poised for connection, symbolizing cross-chain interoperability and the precise protocol integration essential for decentralized ledger technology. The sophisticated design suggests robust data integrity and efficient smart contract execution across distinct blockchain networks, highlighting the complexity of modern tokenomics infrastructure.](https://incrypthos.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/modular-cross-chain-protocol-interoperability-linkage-infrastructure.jpeg)

Despite price consolidation, a surge in active wallets and high profitability across the supply suggest Bitcoin is poised for further growth.

- 
### [Fed Rate Cut Fuels Crypto Risk Appetite, Boosting Altcoins](https://incrypthos.com/markets/fed-rate-cut-fuels-crypto-risk-appetite-boosting-altcoins/)
![A prominent blue Bitcoin symbol, a digital asset, is centrally positioned amidst a complex array of metallic and blue mechanical components. This intricate hardware infrastructure evokes a high-performance mining rig, indicative of a proof-of-work consensus mechanism. The surrounding elements suggest a robust decentralized network, essential for transaction validation and maintaining the immutable ledger of the blockchain protocol. These components, possibly application-specific integrated circuits ASICs, contribute to the collective hash rate, securing the peer-to-peer network and ensuring cryptographic security for every Bitcoin transaction.](https://incrypthos.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/bitcoin-proof-of-work-decentralized-ledger-hardware-infrastructure.jpeg)

The Federal Reserve's recent rate cut ignited risk-taking across crypto markets, propelling altcoins to outperform Bitcoin.

**Tags:** [Bitcoin](https://incrypthos.com/news/bitcoin/), [Bitcoin Price](https://incrypthos.com/news/bitcoin-price/), [Cost Basis](https://incrypthos.com/news/cost-basis/), [Data](https://incrypthos.com/news/data/), [Derivatives Market](https://incrypthos.com/news/derivatives-market/), [FOMC Meeting](https://incrypthos.com/news/fomc-meeting/), [Investor Behavior](https://incrypthos.com/news/investor-behavior/), [Investors](https://incrypthos.com/news/investors/), [Market](https://incrypthos.com/news/market/), [Market Momentum](https://incrypthos.com/news/market-momentum/), [Market Stability](https://incrypthos.com/news/market-stability/), [Markets](https://incrypthos.com/news/markets/), [On-Chain](https://incrypthos.com/news/on-chain/), [On-Chain Data](https://incrypthos.com/news/on-chain-data/), [Open Interest](https://incrypthos.com/news/open-interest/), [Options](https://incrypthos.com/news/options/), [Options Open Interest](https://incrypthos.com/news/options-open-interest/), [Price](https://incrypthos.com/news/price/), [Price Volatility](https://incrypthos.com/news/price-volatility/), [Supply](https://incrypthos.com/news/supply/), [Supply in Profit](https://incrypthos.com/news/supply-in-profit/), [Volatility](https://incrypthos.com/news/volatility/)

---

## Raw Schema Data

```json
{
    "@context": "https://schema.org",
    "@type": "BreadcrumbList",
    "itemListElement": [
        {
            "@type": "ListItem",
            "position": 1,
            "name": "Home",
            "item": "https://incrypthos.com"
        },
        {
            "@type": "ListItem",
            "position": 2,
            "name": "Insights",
            "item": "https://incrypthos.com/insights/"
        },
        {
            "@type": "ListItem",
            "position": 3,
            "name": "Bitcoin&#8217;s $115.2k Cost Basis: Sustaining Momentum or Facing Contraction",
            "item": "https://incrypthos.com/insights/bitcoins-115-2k-cost-basis-sustaining-momentum-or-facing-contraction/"
        }
    ]
}
```

```json
{
    "@context": "https://schema.org",
    "@type": "Organization",
    "@id": "http://incrypthos.com#organization",
    "name": "Incrypthos",
    "url": "http://incrypthos.com",
    "description": "Incrypthos Crypto News Engine is a proprietary language model designed specifically for the cryptocurrency domain. It operates 24/7 to ingest, analyze, and synthesize information from hundreds of global sources. Its core function is to discern the signal from the noise, reconstructing complex news and research into structured, objective summaries. Every article is generated by this engine and includes a direct link to the original source to ensure full transparency.",
    "email": "info@incrypthos.com",
    "logo": {
        "@type": "ImageObject",
        "url": "https://incrypthos.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/Incrypthos.svg"
    }
}
```

```json
{
    "@context": "https://schema.org",
    "@type": "Article",
    "mainEntityOfPage": {
        "@type": "WebPage",
        "@id": "https://incrypthos.com/insights/bitcoins-115-2k-cost-basis-sustaining-momentum-or-facing-contraction/"
    },
    "headline": "Bitcoin's $115.2k Cost Basis: Sustaining Momentum or Facing Contraction \u221e Insights",
    "description": "Bitcoin's price above the $115.2k cost basis for 95% of supply signals crucial demand, with a drop risking market contraction. \u221e Insights",
    "url": "https://incrypthos.com/insights/bitcoins-115-2k-cost-basis-sustaining-momentum-or-facing-contraction/",
    "datePublished": "2025-09-19T09:24:49+00:00",
    "dateModified": "2025-09-19T09:24:54+00:00",
    "articleSection": [
        "Insights"
    ],
    "author": {
        "@id": "http://incrypthos.com#organization"
    },
    "publisher": {
        "@id": "http://incrypthos.com#organization"
    },
    "image": {
        "@type": "ImageObject",
        "url": "https://incrypthos.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/Abstract-Blockchain-Tokenization-Protocol-Interface-Dynamics.jpeg",
        "caption": "A translucent, rounded element is prominently featured, resting on a layered base of vibrant blue and polished silver. This composition evokes the tangible interaction points within the digital asset landscape. The design suggests a secure gateway or interface for managing cryptocurrencies and blockchain-based assets. It visually represents the intricate mechanisms underlying decentralized applications dApps and the secure storage of private keys. The abstract aesthetic points towards the sophisticated technological frameworks that underpin the entire crypto economy, from initial coin offerings ICOs to non-fungible tokens NFTs. The interplay of light and form hints at the underlying cryptographic principles and the robust security protocols essential for digital asset integrity. This imagery could symbolize a next-generation platform for secure token generation events or the user-facing aspect of a decentralized autonomous organization DAO."
    },
    "keywords": [
        "Bitcoin",
        "Bitcoin Price",
        "Cost Basis",
        "Data",
        "Derivatives Market",
        "FOMC Meeting",
        "Investor Behavior",
        "Investors",
        "Market",
        "Market Momentum",
        "Market Stability",
        "Markets",
        "On-Chain",
        "On-Chain Data",
        "Open Interest",
        "Options",
        "Options Open Interest",
        "Price",
        "Price Volatility",
        "Supply",
        "Supply in Profit",
        "Volatility"
    ]
}
```


---

**Original URL:** https://incrypthos.com/insights/bitcoins-115-2k-cost-basis-sustaining-momentum-or-facing-contraction/
