Bitcoin's Bull Trend Holds as Short-Term Holders Defend Key Price Level → Insights

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Briefing

Bitcoin’s current market trend remains strong because its price is holding above the average cost at which recent investors acquired their coins. This key on-chain metric, the Short-Term Holder Realized Price, acts as a critical support level, indicating that newer market participants view price dips as opportunities to buy, rather than reasons to sell. This behavior is a hallmark of a healthy bull market, with Bitcoin’s price currently at approximately $116,200, having recovered after retesting this crucial support at the start of the month.

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Context

Many investors wonder if the current Bitcoin rally is sustainable, or if recent price fluctuations signal a weakening market. The common question is whether new money entering the market is strong enough to absorb selling pressure and maintain upward momentum, or if profit-taking by short-term investors could trigger a broader market downturn.

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Analysis

The Short-Term Holder (STH) Realized Price is a powerful indicator that measures the average price at which Bitcoin’s most recent investors → those holding coins for less than 155 days → acquired their holdings. When Bitcoin’s spot price is above this metric, it means these recent buyers are collectively in profit. Conversely, if the price drops below it, short-term holders are, on average, at a loss. This indicator is crucial because short-term holders are often more reactive to price changes due to their shorter investment horizons.

The data shows that Bitcoin recently retested its STH Realized Price at the beginning of the month and found strong support, leading to a subsequent price recovery. This pattern has been observed repeatedly throughout the current bull market, where the STH Realized Price consistently acts as a floor. In a bullish environment, short-term holders tend to interpret price drawdowns to their cost basis as attractive dip-buying opportunities, reinforcing the support. This collective buying behavior prevents further price declines and confirms the market’s underlying strength.

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Parameters

Key Metric → Short-Term Holder (STH) Realized Price
STH Definition → Investors holding Bitcoin for less than 155 days
Observed Pattern → Bitcoin found support at STH Realized Price after retesting it
Current Bitcoin Price → ~$116,200
Timeframe → Recent activity, specifically early September 2025

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Outlook

This insight suggests that Bitcoin’s near-term market outlook remains constructive as long as the price continues to respect the Short-Term Holder Realized Price as a support level. The consistent defense of this metric by recent buyers indicates a healthy demand dynamic that can absorb minor corrections. Readers should watch for Bitcoin to maintain its position above this cost basis. A sustained break below the STH Realized Price could signal a shift in short-term investor sentiment, potentially leading to market contraction or deeper pullbacks.

The Bitcoin market demonstrates robust underlying strength as recent investors consistently defend their cost basis.

Signal Acquired from → TradingView News (Glassnode Analysis)