Bitcoin's Delicate Balance after FOMC Rate Cut → Insights

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Briefing

Bitcoin’s market maintains a delicate balance following the recent FOMC rate cut, with derivative markets signaling a shift towards more neutral positioning. While spot markets saw mild selling, perpetual futures absorbed this pressure through short squeezes, indicating active speculation. The most critical data point supporting this thesis is Bitcoin trading above the $115.2k cost basis for 95% of its supply, a key level for sustaining demand-side momentum.

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Context

Many investors are wondering about Bitcoin’s true market health and future direction after the recent FOMC meeting and subsequent price movements. Is the market truly stable, or is underlying fragility present? This data helps clarify whether current price levels are sustainable and what factors are driving short-term sentiment.

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Analysis

This analysis focuses on key on-chain and derivative metrics to understand Bitcoin’s post-FOMC market. Perpetual Open Interest (OI) measures the total value of outstanding futures contracts, indicating market leverage and speculative activity. A peak in OI followed by a pullback, as seen from 395k BTC to 380k BTC, suggests that highly leveraged traders were flushed out by volatility. Options Open Interest, which tracks outstanding options contracts, surged to a record 500k BTC, highlighting increased hedging and speculative interest.

When options OI is high, especially around a major expiry like September 26th, it can amplify spot price volatility as market makers adjust their hedges. On-chain, the Supply Quantiles Cost Basis model shows that Bitcoin currently trades above $115.2k, which is the average price at which 95% of the existing supply was acquired. This indicator measures the aggregate cost of coins held by different investor cohorts. When price stays above this level, it signals strong underlying demand and conviction from a large portion of the market, reinforcing upward momentum. A drop below this level, conversely, suggests weakening conviction and potential selling pressure.

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Parameters

Perpetual Open Interest Peak → 395k BTC
Options Open Interest Record → 500k BTC
Critical On-Chain Support → $115.2k (Cost basis for 95% of supply)
Options Max Pain Level → $110k
FOMC Meeting Date → September 17, 2025

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Outlook

The current market structure suggests that Bitcoin’s stability above the $115.2k cost basis is paramount for sustaining its recent demand-driven momentum. If this level holds, it could extend the current upside. However, the record options open interest and the significant September 26th expiry introduce potential for heightened volatility, especially around the $110k max pain point.

A confirming signal to watch is sustained trading volume above $115.2k, indicating strong buyer conviction. A counter-signal would be a decisive break below this level, which could trigger a contraction towards the $105.5k → $115.2k range, signaling renewed selling pressure.