# Bitcoin's FOMC Rally: High Profitability Meets Derivatives Influence ∞ Insights

**Published:** 2025-09-18
**Categories:** Insights

---

![A metallic Bitcoin coin with intricate circuit patterns sits centrally on a complex array of silver-toned technological components and wiring. The surrounding environment consists of dense, blue-tinted machinery, suggesting a sophisticated computational system designed for high-performance operations](https://incrypthos.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/Bitcoin-Digital-Asset-Mining-Infrastructure-Decentralized-Network.jpeg)

![A vibrant blue crystalline cluster forms the central focal point, surrounded by numerous smooth, reflective white spheres of various sizes. Thin, dark, and light curved strands gracefully connect these elements, set against a softly blurred deep blue background](https://incrypthos.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/Decentralized-Protocol-Core-Orbs-Interoperability-Shard-Network-Visual.jpeg)

## Briefing

Bitcoin’s market is currently positioned above $115.2k, with a significant 95% of its supply now held in profit following a recent FOMC-driven rally. This [widespread profitability](https://incrypthos.com/security/npm-developer-credentials-compromised-enabling-widespread-cryptocurrency-drainer-injection/) is accompanied by notable activity in the derivatives market, specifically futures short squeezes and a record 500k BTC in options open interest ahead of the September 26 expiry. This dynamic suggests a market where a large majority of investors are sitting on gains, while derivatives traders are actively positioning themselves, with the $115.2k price level serving as a pivotal point for determining whether the market continues its upward trajectory or faces a potential pullback.

![A translucent blue fluid mass, heavily foamed with effervescent bubbles, cascades across a stack of dark gray modular hardware units. The units display glowing blue digital interfaces featuring data visualizations and intricate circuit patterns](https://incrypthos.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/Nexo-Blockchain-Infrastructure-Liquidity-Dynamics-On-Chain-Processing.jpeg)

## Context

Many are wondering about the sustainability of [Bitcoin](https://incrypthos.com/news/bitcoin/)’s recent price movements. Is the market truly strong, or is it vulnerable to profit-taking? This data helps clarify whether current gains are widely held and what role derivatives play in setting the market’s immediate direction.

![The image displays a translucent, gel-like network structure with embedded blue and metallic mechanical components. A prominent central cylindrical module, featuring ribbed blue sections and silver bands, is housed within this semi-transparent matrix](https://incrypthos.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/Decentralized-Ledger-Cryptographic-Primitive-Consensus-Module.jpeg)

## Analysis

The “[supply in profit](https://incrypthos.com/news/supply-in-profit/)” metric measures the percentage of all Bitcoin in circulation that is currently held at a price higher than its acquisition cost. A high percentage, like the observed 95%, indicates that nearly all investors are holding unrealized gains. This often means there’s a strong incentive for some to take profits, potentially creating sell pressure. However, it can also reflect strong underlying demand if new buyers absorb this selling.

Simultaneously, the derivatives market, encompassing futures and options, shows intensified activity. [Futures short squeezes](https://incrypthos.com/insights/bitcoin-short-term-holders-profit-ahead-of-fed-meeting/) occur when prices rise sharply, forcing traders who bet on falling prices to buy back their positions, further fueling the rally. Record options open interest, especially 500k BTC for the September 26 expiry, means a large volume of contracts are outstanding, indicating significant speculative interest and potential for price volatility around that date. The confluence of widespread profitability and heightened derivatives activity suggests a market with strong conviction, but also one sensitive to key price levels. Holding above $115.2k is crucial, as a drop below this point could signal weakening demand and a move towards $105.5k.

![A sleek, blue and silver mechanical device with intricate metallic components is centered, featuring a raised Ethereum logo on its upper surface. The device exhibits a high level of engineering detail, with various rods, plates, and fasteners forming a complex, integrated system](https://incrypthos.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/ethereum-decentralized-network-infrastructure-scaling-solution.jpeg)

## Parameters

- **Bitcoin [Price Level](https://incrypthos.com/insights/bitcoins-bull-trend-holds-as-short-term-holders-defend-key-price-level/)** ∞ Above $115.2k

- **Supply in [Profit](https://incrypthos.com/news/profit/)** ∞ 95% of Bitcoin supply

- **[Options Open Interest](https://incrypthos.com/news/options-open-interest/)** ∞ Record 500k BTC for September 26 expiry

- **Key [Support Level](https://incrypthos.com/insights/bitcoins-bull-trend-holds-as-short-term-holders-defend-key-price-level/)** ∞ $105.5k

![The image displays an abstract arrangement of translucent blue, fluid-like forms intricately interwoven with metallic cylindrical components and a central blue sphere, all set against a gradient grey background. The composition suggests a complex, interconnected system](https://incrypthos.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/decentralized-ledger-architecture-visualizing-blockchain-protocol-interoperability.jpeg)

## Outlook

This insight suggests that Bitcoin is currently in a strong position, with most investors in profit, yet it faces a critical juncture. The elevated options open interest points to potential [volatility around](https://incrypthos.com/markets/fed-rate-cut-sparks-bitcoin-volatility-price-holds-near-115k/) the September 26 expiry, as market participants either realize gains or adjust their positions. To confirm continued bullish momentum, watch for Bitcoin to firmly hold above the $115.2k level. A sustained break below this point, however, would signal a potential shift in sentiment and could lead to further downside, with $105.5k acting as the next significant support level to monitor.

![A detailed perspective showcases a futuristic technological apparatus, characterized by its transparent, textured blue components that appear to be either frozen liquid or a specialized cooling medium, intertwined with dark metallic structures. Bright blue light emanates from within and along the metallic edges, highlighting the intricate design and suggesting internal activity](https://incrypthos.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/liquid-cooling-protocol-optimizing-decentralized-ledger-technology-performance.jpeg)

## Verdict

**Bitcoin’s market demonstrates robust [profitability](https://incrypthos.com/news/profitability/) and significant derivatives engagement, with $115.2k serving as a pivotal price point for its near-term trajectory.**

Signal Acquired from ∞ <a href="https://glassnode.com?utm_source=incrypthos.com&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=noo-engine.com" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">glassnode.com</a>

## Glossary

<a href="https://incrypthos.com/security/npm-developer-credentials-compromised-enabling-widespread-cryptocurrency-drainer-injection/" class="glossary-item-box">

## widespread profitability 

A phishing attack compromised developer credentials, allowing malicious code injection into widely used JavaScript packages, covertly draining cryptocurrency during user interactions. </a><a href="https://incrypthos.com/news/bitcoin/" class="glossary-item-box">

## bitcoin 

Definition ∞ Bitcoin is the first and most prominent decentralized digital currency, operating on a peer-to-peer network without central oversight. </a><a href="https://incrypthos.com/news/supply-in-profit/" class="glossary-item-box">

## supply in profit 

Definition ∞ Supply in profit refers to the portion of an asset's circulating supply whose current market price is higher than the price at which it was acquired by its holders. </a><a href="https://incrypthos.com/insights/bitcoin-short-term-holders-profit-ahead-of-fed-meeting/" class="glossary-item-box">

## futures short squeezes 

Recent Bitcoin buyers are back in profit, signaling market confidence before the Federal Reserve's decision. </a><a href="https://incrypthos.com/insights/bitcoins-bull-trend-holds-as-short-term-holders-defend-key-price-level/" class="glossary-item-box">

## price level 

Bitcoin's price staying above its short-term holder cost basis signals continued market strength, with recent dips seen as buying chances. </a><a href="https://incrypthos.com/news/profit/" class="glossary-item-box">

## profit 

Definition ∞ Profit signifies the financial gain realized when the revenue generated from an economic activity exceeds the associated expenses. </a><a href="https://incrypthos.com/news/options-open-interest/" class="glossary-item-box">

## options open interest 

Definition ∞ Options open interest represents the total number of outstanding options contracts that have not been settled or exercised. </a><a href="https://incrypthos.com/insights/bitcoins-bull-trend-holds-as-short-term-holders-defend-key-price-level/" class="glossary-item-box">

## support level 

Bitcoin's price staying above its short-term holder cost basis signals continued market strength, with recent dips seen as buying chances. </a><a href="https://incrypthos.com/markets/fed-rate-cut-sparks-bitcoin-volatility-price-holds-near-115k/" class="glossary-item-box">

## volatility around 

The Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut led to immediate Bitcoin price volatility, highlighting cautious market sentiment despite dovish policy shifts. </a><a href="https://incrypthos.com/news/profitability/" class="glossary-item-box">

## profitability 

Definition ∞ Profitability denotes the state of generating financial gain from an investment or business activity. </a>

**Tags:** [Bitcoin Profitability](https://incrypthos.com/news/bitcoin-profitability/), [Bitcoin](https://incrypthos.com/news/bitcoin/), [Price](https://incrypthos.com/news/price/), [Content](https://incrypthos.com/news/content/), [On-Chain Data](https://incrypthos.com/news/on-chain-data/), [Investor Behavior](https://incrypthos.com/news/investor-behavior/)	

## Discover More

- 
### [Bitcoin’s Rally: Fragile Optimism despite Strong ETF and Futures Support](https://incrypthos.com/insights/bitcoins-rally-fragile-optimism-despite-strong-etf-and-futures-support/)
![The scene depicts an arctic landscape featuring various crystalline structures, predominantly deep blue and translucent, emerging from snow-covered mounds. These shard formations, reminiscent of validator nodes, stand resiliently within a decentralized network environment. The foreground features reflective water, symbolizing liquidity pools and on-chain data flow, mirroring the digital assets above. Distant snow-capped protocol layers suggest a vast distributed ledger technology DLT infrastructure. The clear, cold aesthetic evokes cold storage security and the immutability inherent in blockchain consensus mechanisms, representing robust network stability.](https://incrypthos.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/blockchain-shard-crystals-frozen-consensus-mechanism-landscape.jpeg)

Despite surging ETF inflows and futures activity, Bitcoin's current market strength rests on fragile spot demand and rising profit-taking.

- 
### [Bitcoin’s Supply Crisis: 28% Illiquid by 2025](https://incrypthos.com/insights/bitcoins-supply-crisis-28-illiquid-by-2025/)
![A futuristic, segmented white sphere, emblematic of a blockchain protocol or network node, partially submerged in dark, reflective water. From its central aperture, vibrant blue, crystalline substance, symbolizing generated digital assets or staking rewards, emerges, forming an icy mass. This illustrates value creation within a decentralized finance DeFi ecosystem, suggesting a smart contract autonomously issuing tokens or distributing yield from a liquidity pool. The 'frozen' aesthetic implies assets in cold storage or locked in a Proof-of-Stake PoS consensus mechanism, highlighting immutable ledger and tokenomics.](https://incrypthos.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/modular-protocol-emitting-frozen-digital-assets-into-liquidity-pools.jpeg)

Nearly a third of Bitcoin's supply will be locked away by year-end, signaling a major market squeeze.

- 
### [Bitcoin Range-Bound: Profit-Taking and ETF Inflows Weigh on Momentum](https://incrypthos.com/insights/bitcoin-range-bound-profit-taking-and-etf-inflows-weigh-on-momentum/)
![A prominent black Bitcoin symbol is centrally embedded within a complex, futuristic digital asset infrastructure. Intricate blue circuit board traces and metallic components form a dense network, suggesting a sophisticated blockchain architecture. This visualization evokes the underlying hardware and software mechanisms of a decentralized ledger technology. The composition highlights the computational power required for cryptographic proof-of-work, essential for transaction validation and maintaining network consensus. This intricate design represents a high-performance mining rig or a critical node within the peer-to-peer network, embodying the core principles of digital currency and its secure, distributed nature.](https://incrypthos.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/bitcoin-decentralized-ledger-hardware-cryptographic-proof-of-work.jpeg)

Bitcoin is stuck between $110k and $116k, influenced by investors taking profits and a slowdown in new ETF demand.

- 
### [Bitcoin Supply on Exchanges Reaches Seven-Year Low](https://incrypthos.com/markets/bitcoin-supply-on-exchanges-reaches-seven-year-low/)
![Two high-tech modular components, rendered in stark white and metallic silver with translucent blue segments, are depicted in close alignment, illustrating a critical cross-chain communication interface. Intense blue energy rings radiate between them, symbolizing active protocol execution and the secure transfer of digital asset data packets. The intricate internal structures visible through the blue casings suggest complex cryptographic computations within validator nodes, facilitating seamless interoperability across disparate DLT ecosystems. This abstract representation highlights advanced blockchain infrastructure mechanisms.](https://incrypthos.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/cross-chain-interoperability-mechanism-decentralized-protocol-infrastructure.jpeg)

Bitcoin's supply on exchanges has hit a seven-year low, signaling strong institutional accumulation and reduced selling pressure.

- 
### [Ethereum Whales Accumulate amid Price Dip and Market Uncertainty](https://incrypthos.com/insights/ethereum-whales-accumulate-amid-price-dip-and-market-uncertainty/)
![A meticulously rendered silver-toned watch movement showcases intricate mechanical gears and ruby jewels against a dark backdrop. Dominating the center is a stylized, faceted Ethereum ETH logo, seamlessly integrated as the core consensus mechanism of this conceptual timepiece. This visual metaphor highlights the precision engineering of a decentralized network and the underlying protocol layer that powers digital assets and smart contracts, embodying the future of Web3 infrastructure and on-chain mechanics.](https://incrypthos.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/ethereum-protocol-decentralized-ledger-precision-engineering-digital-asset-timepiece.jpeg)

Large Ethereum investors are moving substantial amounts of ETH off exchanges, signaling long-term confidence despite recent price drops.

- 
### [Bitcoin Whales Accumulate: Is a Bullish Breakout Imminent](https://incrypthos.com/insights/bitcoin-whales-accumulate-is-a-bullish-breakout-imminent/)
![A futuristic, metallic sphere, resembling a sophisticated decentralized protocol with orbiting layer 2 solutions, actively processes on-chain data. From its core, a dynamic expulsion of granular white unprocessed data streams and numerous crystalline blue tokenized units or encrypted data packets occurs. This illustrates intense transaction processing and digital asset issuance within a blockchain node, emphasizing network scalability and rapid distribution characteristic of distributed ledger technology via a robust consensus mechanism.](https://incrypthos.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/decentralized-ledger-architecture-disseminating-crypto-asset-blocks.jpeg)

Mid-sized Bitcoin holders are rapidly accumulating, pushing supply into deficit and historically signaling a significant price surge.

- 
### [XYO Launches Data-Focused Layer One Blockchain for DePIN and AI](https://incrypthos.com/web3/xyo-launches-data-focused-layer-one-blockchain-for-depin-and-ai/)
![A detailed view of a high-performance blockchain node's internal validator mechanism, featuring a central metallic shaft representing core processing units. This mechanism is integrated within a vibrant blue housing, symbolizing the on-chain settlement layer. Surrounding the active components are numerous white, cloud-like formations, abstractly depicting off-chain computation batches, specifically Zero-Knowledge Rollups. These elements highlight advanced scalability solutions, ensuring enhanced transaction throughput and data integrity within a distributed ledger technology network. The design emphasizes efficient consensus protocol execution and robust cryptographic proofs for secure operations.](https://incrypthos.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/high-performance-blockchain-node-executing-zero-knowledge-rollup-batches.jpeg)

XYO Network's new Layer One blockchain pioneers scalable, verifiable data infrastructure, addressing critical data integrity needs across AI, RWA, and DePIN verticals.

- 
### [Bitcoin’s Recovery Fragile: Profit-Taking Pressures Mount](https://incrypthos.com/insights/bitcoins-recovery-fragile-profit-taking-pressures-mount/)
![An intricate network of interconnected blue and grey cuboid modules forms a robust decentralized network infrastructure. Visible printed circuit boards on modules display numerous surface-mount components and data pathways, indicative of on-chain processing. Robust cables facilitate interoperability protocols and cross-chain communication between these validator nodes. This modular design supports scalable blockchain architecture and efficient transaction validation, essential for distributed ledger technology operations and cryptographic hashing computations, ensuring data integrity within Web3 infrastructure.](https://incrypthos.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/modular-blockchain-node-infrastructure-for-decentralized-network-processing.jpeg)

Bitcoin's recent price recovery is tenuous, as widespread investor profitability creates conditions for renewed selling pressure.

- 
### [Bitcoin’s Recovery Faces Fragile Demand and Emerging Sell Pressure](https://incrypthos.com/insights/bitcoins-recovery-faces-fragile-demand-and-emerging-sell-pressure/)
![A sleek, metallic blue device reveals its intricate internal architecture, showcasing finely crafted silver gears and interconnected pathways. This core protocol engine visually represents the complex operations of a blockchain network. The exposed mechanisms symbolize cryptographic hashing and smart contract execution, driving transaction finality. From its structure, a vibrant, bubbly blue stream emerges, illustrating the continuous generation and propagation of secure, encrypted data packets across the decentralized ledger technology. This dynamic output signifies robust network activity and data integrity.](https://incrypthos.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/Core-Protocol-Engine-Executing-Cryptographic-Proofs-and-Data.jpeg)

Bitcoin's recent price surge, fueled by institutional interest, is now challenged by cautious investor behavior and increasing profit-taking.

**Tags:** [Activity](https://incrypthos.com/news/activity/), [Bitcoin](https://incrypthos.com/news/bitcoin/), [Bitcoin Profitability](https://incrypthos.com/news/bitcoin-profitability/), [Bitcoin Rally](https://incrypthos.com/news/bitcoin-rally/), [BTC](https://incrypthos.com/news/btc/), [Content](https://incrypthos.com/news/content/), [Derivatives Market](https://incrypthos.com/news/derivatives-market/), [Futures Squeezes](https://incrypthos.com/news/futures-squeezes/), [Investor Behavior](https://incrypthos.com/news/investor-behavior/), [Investors](https://incrypthos.com/news/investors/), [Market](https://incrypthos.com/news/market/), [Market Sentiment](https://incrypthos.com/news/market-sentiment/), [On-Chain Data](https://incrypthos.com/news/on-chain-data/), [Open Interest](https://incrypthos.com/news/open-interest/), [Options](https://incrypthos.com/news/options/), [Options Open Interest](https://incrypthos.com/news/options-open-interest/), [Price](https://incrypthos.com/news/price/), [Price Levels](https://incrypthos.com/news/price-levels/), [Profit](https://incrypthos.com/news/profit/), [Profitability](https://incrypthos.com/news/profitability/), [Rally](https://incrypthos.com/news/rally/), [Supply](https://incrypthos.com/news/supply/), [Supply in Profit](https://incrypthos.com/news/supply-in-profit/)

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**Original URL:** https://incrypthos.com/insights/bitcoins-fomc-rally-high-profitability-meets-derivatives-influence/
