# Bitcoin's Fragile Recovery Faces Renewed Selling Pressure ∞ Insights

**Published:** 2025-09-17
**Categories:** Insights

---

![A luminous sphere, adorned with microchip-like details and pulsating light points, is encircled by a smooth white ring. This visual metaphor encapsulates the essence of a decentralized digital asset, perhaps a next-generation cryptocurrency or a smart contract execution environment](https://incrypthos.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/Abstract-Quantum-Blockchain-Node-and-Decentralized-Network-Architecture.jpeg)

![A detailed macro shot presents a cluster of metallic blue Bitcoin symbols, each sculpted with intricate circuit board etchings and studded with countless small, reflective silver components. The foreground features a sharply focused Bitcoin icon, while others blur into the background, creating a sense of depth and abundance](https://incrypthos.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/Bitcoin-Blockchain-Nodes-Digital-Asset-Infrastructure-Representation.jpeg)

## Briefing

Bitcoin recently surged to $116,000, fueled by anticipation of a Fed rate cut, yet it now faces [renewed selling pressure](https://incrypthos.com/insights/bitcoins-recovery-meets-renewed-selling-pressure/) from weakening spot flows and increased profit-taking. This suggests that while macro events can drive short-term price movements, underlying demand is fragile, leaving Bitcoin vulnerable if sustained buying interest does not materialize. The most important data point is the rising profitability metrics ∞ supply in profit, NUPL, and realized P/L ∞ which indicate widespread investor gains but also an elevated risk of demand exhaustion as more participants take profits.

![A central, highly detailed white and metallic spherical mechanism forms the core of a dynamic system, with a glowing blue, structured data stream passing through its center. The background features similar out-of-focus elements, suggesting a broader network of interconnected components](https://incrypthos.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/decentralized-protocol-node-transaction-validation-stream.jpeg)

## Context

Many are wondering if Bitcoin’s recent [price recovery](https://incrypthos.com/markets/bitcoin-inflows-surge-driving-price-recovery/) signals a robust bull market or if it’s merely a temporary bounce. Is the market truly gaining strength, or are investors simply capitalizing on short-term opportunities before a potential downturn?

![A futuristic, translucent blue spherical object, resembling a secure network node, features a prominent central display. This display presents a dynamic candlestick chart, showing real-time price action with distinct bullish blue and bearish red patterns, partially veiled by metallic grilles](https://incrypthos.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/decentralized-finance-blockchain-analytics-market-volatility-digital-asset-node.jpeg)

## Analysis

On-chain data reveals a complex picture. [Profitability metrics](https://incrypthos.com/news/profitability-metrics/), including the percentage of supply in profit, Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL), and realized Profit/Loss (P/L), have all increased. These indicators measure the overall unrealized and realized gains across the Bitcoin network. When they rise, it means more investors are holding coins at a profit or have recently sold coins for a profit, which can signal stronger sentiment.

However, elevated profit realization also indicates that many investors are taking money off the table, potentially exhausting demand if new capital doesn’t flow in. In the spot market, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) shows Bitcoin is overbought, while Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) has weakened and trading volumes remain flat, indicating strong momentum without strong conviction. The futures market shows high participation and [aggressive buy-side flows](https://incrypthos.com/regulation/u-s-treasury-fincen-advances-aggressive-crypto-mixer-rule/), but softer funding rates suggest a cautious shift among traders. This pattern suggests that while derivatives are actively influencing price, the foundational spot demand needed for sustained growth is currently lacking.

![A close-up view reveals an abstract, granular blue and grey textured form, with multiple metallic and transparent rod-like structures piercing its surface and extending into its glowing blue core. A dark, ribbed cylindrical element is also visible within the complex internal arrangement](https://incrypthos.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/Decentralized-Network-Protocol-Mechanisms-Powering-Cryptographic-Integrity.jpeg)

## Parameters

- **Profitability Metrics (Supply in Profit, NUPL, Realized P/L)** ∞ All rising, indicating broad [investor profitability](https://incrypthos.com/news/investor-profitability/) and stronger sentiment, but also heightened risk of demand exhaustion.

- **Spot Market RSI** ∞ Surged into overbought territory, showing [strong momentum](https://incrypthos.com/insights/bitcoin-shark-accumulation-signals-strong-bullish-market-momentum/).

- **[Spot Market](https://incrypthos.com/news/spot-market/) CVD & Volume** ∞ Weakened CVD and flat volumes, reflecting strong momentum but limited conviction.

- **Futures Market Open Interest & Perpetual CVD** ∞ Rising open interest and spiking perpetual CVD on [aggressive buy-side](https://incrypthos.com/regulation/u-s-treasury-fincen-advances-aggressive-crypto-mixer-rule/) flows.

- **[Futures Funding](https://incrypthos.com/news/futures-funding/) Rates** ∞ Softer, hinting at reduced long demand and a shift towards caution.

- **On-chain Addresses & [Transfer Volume](https://incrypthos.com/web3/pump-fun-dominates-memecoin-sector-with-1-billion-daily-volume/)** ∞ Addresses slipping towards cycle lows, but transfer volume increasing, suggesting renewed capital flows despite quieter user activity.

![The image presents a detailed view of blue and silver mechanical components, with a sharp focus on a circular emblem featuring the Ethereum logo. A blurred silver coin with the Bitcoin symbol is visible in the foreground to the right, amidst a complex arrangement of parts](https://incrypthos.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/Ethereum-Bitcoin-Blockchain-Protocol-Network-Interoperability-Architecture.jpeg)

## Outlook

This insight suggests that Bitcoin’s immediate future is delicately balanced. The market’s recent recovery, driven by macro sentiment and derivatives, lacks robust spot demand, making it susceptible to pullbacks. Investors should watch for a sustained increase in spot [trading volumes](https://incrypthos.com/web3/avantis-launches-derivatives-trading-on-base-secures-major-funding/) and a reversal in funding rates to confirm renewed buying conviction. Conversely, a continued decline in spot volumes alongside persistent profit-taking would signal further fragility and potential for deeper price corrections.

![A futuristic, ice-covered device with glowing blue internal mechanisms is prominently displayed, featuring a large, moon-like sphere at its core. The intricate structure is partially obscured by frost, highlighting both its advanced technology and its cold, secure nature](https://incrypthos.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/quantum-ledger-defi-protocol-cold-storage-hardware-wallet.jpeg)

## Bitcoin’s Price Recovery Is Fragile, Driven by Macro Factors and Derivatives Rather than Robust Spot Demand, Indicating Vulnerability to Renewed Selling Pressure.

Signal Acquired from ∞ <a href="https://insights.glassnode.com/btc-market-pulse-week-38/?utm_source=incrypthos.com&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=noo-engine.com" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Glassnode Insights</a>

## Glossary

<a href="https://incrypthos.com/insights/bitcoins-recovery-meets-renewed-selling-pressure/" class="glossary-item-box">

## renewed selling pressure 

Bitcoin's price rebound to $116k, spurred by rate cut hopes, now faces fresh selling, highlighting a fragile market dynamic. </a><a href="https://incrypthos.com/markets/bitcoin-inflows-surge-driving-price-recovery/" class="glossary-item-box">

## price recovery 

Strong institutional demand through spot Bitcoin ETFs is fueling Bitcoin's recent price rebound. </a><a href="https://incrypthos.com/news/profitability-metrics/" class="glossary-item-box">

## profitability metrics 

Definition ∞ Profitability metrics are quantitative measures used to assess the financial performance and earning potential of digital assets, protocols, or related businesses. </a><a href="https://incrypthos.com/regulation/u-s-treasury-fincen-advances-aggressive-crypto-mixer-rule/" class="glossary-item-box">

## aggressive buy-side flows 

FinCEN's proposed "mixer rule" escalates AML compliance for digital assets, mandating stringent reporting and redefining transactional privacy for regulated entities. </a><a href="https://incrypthos.com/news/investor-profitability/" class="glossary-item-box">

## investor profitability 

Definition ∞ Investor profitability measures the financial gains or losses realized by individuals or entities participating in digital asset markets. </a><a href="https://incrypthos.com/insights/bitcoin-shark-accumulation-signals-strong-bullish-market-momentum/" class="glossary-item-box">

## strong momentum 

Mid-sized Bitcoin investors are aggressively buying, pushing their holdings to a record high and indicating a strong conviction in future price growth. </a><a href="https://incrypthos.com/news/spot-market/" class="glossary-item-box">

## spot market 

Definition ∞ A spot market is a public commodity or financial market where financial instruments or commodities are traded for immediate delivery. </a><a href="https://incrypthos.com/regulation/u-s-treasury-fincen-advances-aggressive-crypto-mixer-rule/" class="glossary-item-box">

## aggressive buy-side 

FinCEN's proposed "mixer rule" escalates AML compliance for digital assets, mandating stringent reporting and redefining transactional privacy for regulated entities. </a><a href="https://incrypthos.com/news/futures-funding/" class="glossary-item-box">

## futures funding 

Definition ∞ Futures Funding represents the periodic payments made between holders of long and short positions in cryptocurrency futures contracts. </a><a href="https://incrypthos.com/web3/pump-fun-dominates-memecoin-sector-with-1-billion-daily-volume/" class="glossary-item-box">

## transfer volume 

Pump. </a><a href="https://incrypthos.com/web3/avantis-launches-derivatives-trading-on-base-secures-major-funding/" class="glossary-item-box">

## trading volumes 

Avantis' debut on Base establishes a high-throughput, secure on-chain derivatives platform, enhancing capital efficiency and expanding trading primitives within the Layer 2 ecosystem. </a>

**Tags:** [Profitability Metrics](https://incrypthos.com/news/profitability-metrics/), [Spot Volumes](https://incrypthos.com/news/spot-volumes/), [Bitcoin](https://incrypthos.com/news/bitcoin/), [Supply in Profit](https://incrypthos.com/news/supply-in-profit/), [Investor Profitability](https://incrypthos.com/news/investor-profitability/), [Profit Taking](https://incrypthos.com/news/profit-taking/)	

## Discover More

- 
### [Bitcoin’s Post-FOMC Stability: Can Key Support Hold](https://incrypthos.com/insights/bitcoins-post-fomc-stability-can-key-support-hold/)
![A central, polished white sphere with subtle blue internal divisions is surrounded by a dynamic explosion of iridescent blue and black metallic shards. A smooth, white curved rod passes through the foreground, intersecting the composition. This visual metaphor suggests the interconnectedness and complexity of decentralized ledger technology, where individual nodes, represented by the sphere, interact within a broader network. The abstract forms hint at cryptographic hashing, consensus mechanisms, and the emergent properties of distributed systems, potentially illustrating concepts like zero-knowledge proofs or secure multi-party computation within a blockchain architecture.](https://incrypthos.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/Abstract-Quantum-Entanglement-Cryptographic-Protocols-Network-Dynamics.jpeg)

Bitcoin holds critical on-chain support, with derivatives showing balanced but volatile positioning, awaiting a confirmed market direction.

- 
### [Bitcoin ETF Inflows Drive Renewed Bullish Sentiment despite Whale Selling](https://incrypthos.com/insights/bitcoin-etf-inflows-drive-renewed-bullish-sentiment-despite-whale-selling/)
![A luminous full moon anchors an intricate, futuristic network of metallic and translucent blue modules, evoking advanced blockchain infrastructure. These interconnected structures, characteristic of a distributed ledger technology DLT ecosystem, feature glowing components signifying active data processing and smart contract execution. Ethereal white vapor, symbolizing distributed computing and Web3 cloud infrastructure, permeates the scene. This metaphor encapsulates the ambitious trajectory of digital assets, highlighting mechanisms driving scalable interoperability and on-chain governance within decentralized finance DeFi.](https://incrypthos.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/blockchain-node-network-architecture-guiding-decentralized-finance-ecosystem-ascent.jpeg)

Despite recent whale selling and profit-taking, strong Bitcoin ETF inflows and reaccelerating demand signal a potential for continued market upside.

- 
### [Bitcoin Market Fragility: Caution Dominates despite Price Stability](https://incrypthos.com/insights/bitcoin-market-fragility-caution-dominates-despite-price-stability/)
![Towering, jagged ice formations, glowing deep blue at their bases and white on top, dominate the scene. A prominent metallic structure, resembling a hardware wallet or node, integrates with the ice. Smaller icy spheres and white, cloud-like elements surround the base, reflecting on water. This composition metaphorically represents robust blockchain infrastructure, emphasizing cold storage for digital assets, cryptographic security, and network resilience. It signifies immutability within a decentralized network and secure self-custody via distributed ledger technology.](https://incrypthos.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/metallic-hardware-wallet-cold-storage-immutable-blockchain-infrastructure.jpeg)

Bitcoin navigates a fragile stability around key investor cost bases, with profit-taking and cooling demand signaling prevailing caution.

- 
### [Bitcoin Selling Pressure Persists, Delaying Market Rebound](https://incrypthos.com/insights/bitcoin-selling-pressure-persists-delaying-market-rebound/)
![A close-up view reveals a frosted, translucent, irregularly shaped object adorned with numerous water droplets, symbolizing blockchain transparency and data integrity. Behind this cryptographic primitive, blurred deep blue and lighter blue forms suggest intricate protocol architecture and underlying digital asset flows. A smooth, dark grey, curved metallic element on the left signifies robust hardware wallet security or institutional custody solutions. The droplets emphasize network resilience and transaction finality, reflecting a secure distributed ledger technology DLT environment. This visual metaphor highlights the immutability inherent in Web3 infrastructure.](https://incrypthos.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/transparent-protocol-architecture-visualizing-decentralized-ledger-security.jpeg)

Bitcoin's Accumulation Trend Score shows ongoing distribution, indicating a market struggling to find strong buying conviction.

- 
### [Fed Rate Cut Anticipation Fuels Crypto Market Optimism](https://incrypthos.com/markets/fed-rate-cut-anticipation-fuels-crypto-market-optimism/)
![Intricate Bitcoin ASIC miner architecture features a prominent metallic 'B' symbol atop layered blue and silver components. Deep blue hexagonal recesses within the 'B' suggest advanced computational power or liquid cooling for optimal hash rate performance. Black data transmission conduits interweave through the structure, connecting various blockchain node elements. Translucent blue panels highlight the complex decentralized network infrastructure, emphasizing transaction validation and cryptographic hashing capabilities essential for digital asset security and Proof-of-Work consensus. This represents robust DLT architecture.](https://incrypthos.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/bitcoin-blockchain-asic-hardware-decentralized-network-processing-unit.jpeg)

Crypto investors are keenly watching the Fed's expected rate cut tomorrow, which typically boosts risk assets like Bitcoin and altcoins.

- 
### [Bitcoin Accumulation Surges, Signaling Strong Market Conviction](https://incrypthos.com/insights/bitcoin-accumulation-surges-signaling-strong-market-conviction/)
![A sophisticated hardware component, possibly an ASIC miner or high-performance network node, integrates with translucent blue, jagged cryogenic cooling elements. A central metallic module, potentially housing a specialized processing unit or secure enclave, is visible amidst the icy matrix. This setup suggests advanced thermal management crucial for optimal operational efficiency and hash rate stability in intensive Proof-of-Work or Proof-of-Stake validation environments. It emphasizes robust infrastructure for decentralized ledger technology, ensuring reliable transaction processing and cryptographic security.](https://incrypthos.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/cryogenic-cooling-module-for-high-performance-blockchain-validation-hardware.jpeg)

Bitcoin is leaving exchanges and long-term investors are buying, showing strong market confidence for a potential price increase.

- 
### [Bitcoin’s Recovery Faces Fragile Sell Pressure](https://incrypthos.com/insights/bitcoins-recovery-faces-fragile-sell-pressure/)
![A close-up view reveals a complex modular blockchain infrastructure, featuring interconnected metallic and blue components. A central, prominent module, possibly representing a validator node or core processor, is surrounded by smaller units. These modules, signifying various network nodes or sharded components, are linked by intricate blue, red, and black wires, illustrating robust data flow and transaction pathways. The design emphasizes a decentralized network topology, highlighting protocol interoperability and cryptographic hash functions ensuring data integrity across the distributed ledger. This visual metaphor depicts advanced consensus mechanism operations and efficient transaction throughput within a scalable Web3 environment.](https://incrypthos.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/modular-blockchain-infrastructure-interconnected-protocol-nodes-and-data-flow.jpeg)

Macro momentum lifted Bitcoin to $116k, yet profit-taking and softening demand signals point to underlying market fragility.

- 
### [Ethereum Accumulation Strengthens despite Whale Selling Pressure](https://incrypthos.com/insights/ethereum-accumulation-strengthens-despite-whale-selling-pressure/)
![A sophisticated metallic hardware component prominently displays the Ethereum emblem on its brushed surface. Beneath, intricate mechanical gears and sub-components reveal precision engineering. Blue and silver conduits are meticulously arranged, suggesting robust data transmission within a secure system. This visually encapsulates a hardware wallet or a cryptographic security module, critical for digital asset custody and safeguarding on-chain transactions. It reflects the complex blockchain technology underpinning decentralized finance infrastructure, emphasizing protocol layer integrity.](https://incrypthos.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/ethereum-staking-infrastructure-cryptographic-security-module-engineering.jpeg)

Despite recent whale profit-taking, Ethereum's core on-chain metrics reveal robust accumulation and growing network engagement.

- 
### [Bitcoin’s Recent Recovery Faces Renewed Sell Pressure](https://incrypthos.com/insights/bitcoins-recent-recovery-faces-renewed-sell-pressure/)
![A modern office environment partially submerged in water and ethereal clouds, symbolizing a transformative shift. Prominently, concentric, translucent blue rings emerge from the liquid, suggesting intricate blockchain network architecture or DeFi protocol layers. These rings represent scalability solutions like Layer 2 rollups or the interconnectedness of dApps within a Web3 ecosystem. The surrounding mist and water denote market liquidity dynamics and volatile sentiment, impacting digital asset valuations. This visual metaphor encapsulates the complex interplay of on-chain governance and protocol composability in a rapidly evolving decentralized finance landscape.](https://incrypthos.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/blockchain-network-composability-layers-amidst-decentralized-liquidity.jpeg)

Despite a brief rebound to $116k, Bitcoin's price momentum is weakening due to profit-taking and persistent sell pressure, overriding positive sentiment from potential Fed rate cuts.

**Tags:** [Bitcoin](https://incrypthos.com/news/bitcoin/), [Bitcoin Market](https://incrypthos.com/news/bitcoin-market/), [Bitcoin Price](https://incrypthos.com/news/bitcoin-price/), [Capital](https://incrypthos.com/news/capital/), [Capital Flows](https://incrypthos.com/news/capital-flows/), [Derivatives Influence](https://incrypthos.com/news/derivatives-influence/), [Funding Rates](https://incrypthos.com/news/funding-rates/), [Futures Funding](https://incrypthos.com/news/futures-funding/), [Investor Conviction](https://incrypthos.com/news/investor-conviction/), [Investor Profitability](https://incrypthos.com/news/investor-profitability/), [Investors](https://incrypthos.com/news/investors/), [Market](https://incrypthos.com/news/market/), [Market Sentiment](https://incrypthos.com/news/market-sentiment/), [Metrics](https://incrypthos.com/news/metrics/), [On-Chain Activity](https://incrypthos.com/news/on-chain-activity/), [On-Chain Metrics](https://incrypthos.com/news/on-chain-metrics/), [Open Interest](https://incrypthos.com/news/open-interest/), [Pressure](https://incrypthos.com/news/pressure/), [Price](https://incrypthos.com/news/price/), [Profit](https://incrypthos.com/news/profit/), [Profit Realization](https://incrypthos.com/news/profit-realization/), [Profit Taking](https://incrypthos.com/news/profit-taking/), [Profitability](https://incrypthos.com/news/profitability/), [Profitability Metrics](https://incrypthos.com/news/profitability-metrics/), [Recovery](https://incrypthos.com/news/recovery/), [Selling](https://incrypthos.com/news/selling/), [Selling Pressure](https://incrypthos.com/news/selling-pressure/), [Sentiment](https://incrypthos.com/news/sentiment/), [Spot](https://incrypthos.com/news/spot/), [Spot Demand](https://incrypthos.com/news/spot-demand/), [Spot Market](https://incrypthos.com/news/spot-market/), [Spot Volumes](https://incrypthos.com/news/spot-volumes/), [Supply](https://incrypthos.com/news/supply/), [Supply in Profit](https://incrypthos.com/news/supply-in-profit/), [Trader Behavior](https://incrypthos.com/news/trader-behavior/)

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**Original URL:** https://incrypthos.com/insights/bitcoins-fragile-recovery-faces-renewed-selling-pressure/
