Bitcoin's Fragile Recovery Meets Renewed Selling Pressure from Profit-Takers → Insights

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Briefing

Bitcoin’s recent price surge to $116k, driven by macro sentiment and ETF inflows, faces significant headwinds from renewed selling pressure. This suggests that while external factors provide a boost, underlying market demand is softening as investors take profits. The rising “supply in profit” metric, coupled with weakening spot flows and softer futures funding rates, clearly indicates this emerging caution and vulnerability.

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Context

Many wonder if Bitcoin’s recent price rally is sustainable or if it is merely a temporary bounce. People want to understand if the current upward movement has strong foundational support or if big players are quietly offloading their holdings. This data helps clarify the true health of demand and the forces influencing market direction.

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Analysis

The market’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) surged, indicating strong upward momentum. This momentum is fragile; the Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) for spot trading weakened, meaning buying conviction is not keeping pace with price. Simultaneously, futures open interest increased, but funding rates softened, suggesting leverage is active with less aggressive long-side demand. This combination of indicators shows that while Bitcoin recovered, much of the buying power is speculative and profit-taking is increasing, leading to renewed sell pressure.

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Parameters

Market Recovery Level → Bitcoin recovered to $116k
Spot RSI Trend → Surged into overbought territory
Spot CVD & Volume → Weakened CVD, flat volumes
Futures Open Interest → Rising
Futures Funding Rates → Softer
ETF Net Inflows → Significantly strengthened, above range
Profitability Metrics → Supply in profit, NUPL, Realized P/L all rising
On-chain Addresses → Slipping toward cycle lows
On-chain Transfer Volume → Increasing
On-chain Fees → Dipped

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Outlook

This data suggests Bitcoin faces a critical juncture. The current recovery relies heavily on macro sentiment and institutional ETF demand, making it susceptible to shifts in these external forces. To confirm a sustained uptrend, watch for a significant increase in spot trading volumes and a consistent rise in on-chain active addresses, signaling broader, organic demand beyond speculative or institutional flows.