Bitcoin's NVT-GC Signals Potential $150,000 Price Expansion → Insights

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Briefing

Bitcoin is positioned for substantial price growth, with a potential target of $150,000 in the upcoming months. The Network Value to Transaction Golden Cross (NVT-GC) indicator, a key on-chain metric, currently sits in “neutral” territory, signaling that the market is not yet overheated. This neutral reading, following a “long” signal in July, suggests significant room for price expansion, supported by historical patterns where similar NVT-GC movements have consistently preceded major Bitcoin price rallies.

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Context

Investors often wonder if Bitcoin’s current market momentum is sustainable or if it is approaching a bubble. The core question revolves around whether the asset is becoming overvalued, prompting concerns about an impending correction. This data provides clarity on the underlying health of Bitcoin’s network and its valuation relative to actual usage.

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Analysis

The Network Value to Transaction Golden Cross (NVT-GC) is a leading on-chain indicator that helps assess if Bitcoin is overvalued or undervalued. It compares Bitcoin’s market capitalization (Network Value) to the value of transactions processed on its blockchain (Transaction Volume) over a specific timeframe. When NVT-GC values are negative, particularly below -1.6, it historically signals periods of price upside. Conversely, values above 2.2 often precede a bearish reversal.

The recent data shows NVT-GC moving from a “long” signal of -2.8 in July to a current “neutral” reading of 0.3. This pattern indicates that Bitcoin is not in a high-risk or bubble territory, suggesting that its price has considerable room to climb. Historical performance confirms that previous dips into the “long” zone have consistently led to significant price gains.

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Parameters

Key Metric → Network Value to Transaction Golden Cross (NVT-GC)
Observed Pattern → NVT-GC moved from -2.8 (long signal in July) to 0.3 (neutral)
Current NVT-GC Status → Neutral territory
Price Expansion Threshold → NVT-GC below 2.2
Historical Performance → Previous four “long” signals resulted in BTC price gains
Short-Term Holder Realized Price → BTC price sits just above this aggregate cost basis
STH MVRV Z-Scores (155D & 365D) → Hovering near zero, indicating a balanced market

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Outlook

This insight suggests a strong near-term bullish outlook for Bitcoin, with analysts projecting a potential price range of $120,000 → $150,000 in the coming months. The market is not currently in a high-risk zone, indicating sustained upward momentum. A confirming signal to watch for is continued consolidation above the Short-Term Holder Realized Price, which would further solidify the foundation for a push towards new all-time highs.