Bitcoin's On-Chain Shift: Institutional Growth Drives New Bull Market → Insights

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Briefing

Bitcoin’s market is undergoing a fundamental transformation, moving away from speculative retail-driven cycles towards sustained growth powered by institutional adoption and strong underlying fundamentals. Key on-chain indicators, such as the Network Value to Transactions (NVT) ratio, now signal a “golden cross” at approximately 1.51, reflecting a healthier balance where Bitcoin’s price is increasingly supported by real utility rather than short-term trading. This shift is further evidenced by a significant supply squeeze, with roughly 74% of all circulating Bitcoin now illiquid, demonstrating aggressive accumulation by long-term holders and institutions.

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Context

Many in the market wonder if Bitcoin’s recent price movements are sustainable, or if they are simply a continuation of past speculative cycles. Is the market truly maturing, or are we just seeing another surge driven by short-term hype? This data helps answer whether big players are truly building long-term positions and if the underlying network health supports continued growth.

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Analysis

The Network Value to Transactions (NVT) ratio is a core metric that measures Bitcoin’s total market value against the daily value transacted on its blockchain. When NVT goes up, it suggests the market value is growing faster than its utility, potentially indicating overvaluation. When it goes down, it might suggest undervaluation or increased utility relative to price. The current NVT ratio at ~1.51, described as a “golden cross,” indicates a balance where transactional utility is robustly supporting Bitcoin’s valuation, moving beyond mere speculation.

This pattern, historically seen at the beginning of sustained bull markets, is reinforced by the fact that 74% of Bitcoin’s circulating supply is now illiquid, meaning it is held by long-term investors and not readily available for sale. This supply squeeze, combined with a rebound in the Spent Output Verification (SPV) ratio and the Value Days Destroyed (VDD) Multiple entering a “green zone,” confirms that experienced holders are accumulating, indicating a strong foundation for future price appreciation.

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Parameters

Key Metric – NVT Ratio → ~1.51 (Golden Cross)
Observed Pattern – Illiquid Supply → 74% of circulating BTC
Core Data Point – Long-Term Holder Accumulation → SPV rebound and VDD Multiple in “green zone”
Market Shift – Capital Flows → From new retail to experienced holders
Timeframe of Analysis → Q3 2025, post-April 2024 halving

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Outlook

This insight suggests that Bitcoin is entering a new phase of market maturity, driven by enduring institutional demand and a shrinking available supply. The near-term future points towards continued accumulation and a more stable, fundamentals-driven price trajectory. A confirming signal to watch for would be a sustained increase in the average transaction size alongside continued low exchange reserves, indicating ongoing institutional activity and reduced selling pressure.