Briefing
Bitcoin’s market remains in a delicate balance following the recent FOMC meeting, with its price holding above a crucial on-chain support level. This suggests underlying demand strength, even as derivatives markets show mixed signals of profit-taking and leveraged positioning. The most important data point is Bitcoin trading above the $115.2k cost basis of 95% of its supply, indicating that the vast majority of investors are in profit and are supporting the current price level.
Context
Many investors are wondering about Bitcoin’s true market health after the recent FOMC meeting and subsequent price movements. Is the market poised for further growth, or is it facing renewed selling pressure? This data helps clarify whether current price stability is sustainable or if underlying fragilities could lead to a correction.
Analysis
The “cost basis of supply” is a fundamental on-chain metric representing the average price at which all Bitcoin in circulation was acquired. When Bitcoin’s price trades above the cost basis of a significant portion of its supply, it means a large percentage of investors are holding profitable positions. This indicator measures the aggregate conviction of the market. Currently, Bitcoin trades above the $115.2k cost basis of 95% of its supply.
This pattern shows that most investors are in profit, which can either encourage further holding or trigger profit-taking. While spot markets have seen mild selling, the perpetual futures market has absorbed this pressure through short squeezes, indicating a return of liquidity. Additionally, record-high options open interest, particularly around the September 26th expiry, suggests heightened volatility potential. The market’s ability to maintain the $115.2k level is crucial; a failure to do so could lead to a contraction toward the $105.5k → $115.2k range, where weaker conviction might emerge.
Parameters
- Bitcoin Price vs. 95% Supply Cost Basis → Bitcoin trades above $115.2k.
- Perpetual Open Interest (OI) Peak → 395k BTC on September 13, stabilizing around 378k → 384k BTC post-FOMC.
- Options Open Interest (OI) Record → Nearly 500k BTC.
- September 26th Options Expiry → Largest in Bitcoin’s history.
- Long-Side Max Pain Level → $112.7k.
- Short-Side Max Pain Level → $121.6k.
Outlook
This insight suggests that Bitcoin’s immediate future hinges on its ability to maintain the $115.2k support level. If this level holds, it could signal continued demand and extend the current momentum. However, the record options expiry on September 26th introduces a significant volatility risk, as hedging flows could heavily influence spot price. Readers should watch for sustained trading above $115.2k as a confirming signal for bullish continuation, or a decisive break below it as a counter-signal for potential price contraction.
Signal Acquired from → Glassnode Insights
