Bitcoin's Recovery Faces Sell Pressure despite Macro Momentum → Insights

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Briefing

The Bitcoin market experienced a recovery, propelled by macro factors and significant institutional ETF inflows, pushing prices to $116k. This upward movement is encountering growing sell pressure, evident in weakening spot flows and increased profit-taking from investors. The fragility of demand, despite improving sentiment, suggests Bitcoin remains vulnerable to further corrections if sustained buying power does not materialize. The most critical data point indicating this shift is the simultaneous rise in investor profitability alongside weakening spot flows and softer futures funding.

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Context

Many investors are wondering if Bitcoin’s recent rally is sustainable, or if the market is showing signs of weakness beneath the surface. This analysis helps clarify whether current price levels reflect genuine demand or a temporary bounce.

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Analysis

On-chain and off-chain indicators paint a nuanced picture. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) in the spot market shows strong momentum, but the Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) indicates limited conviction from buyers as sellers push into strength. In the futures market, rising open interest suggests active leverage, yet softer funding rates point to reduced demand for long positions, revealing a cautious shift in sentiment.

While ETF inflows demonstrate robust institutional interest, this is being offset by a rise in profit-taking, where investors realize gains, creating supply that must be absorbed. This combination of strong institutional demand meeting increasing seller activity underscores the market’s current delicate balance.

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Parameters

Key Metric → Bitcoin’s Price Action ($116k recovery, facing sell pressure)
Spot Market Indicators → RSI (overbought), CVD (weakening), Volume (flat)
Futures Market Indicators → Open Interest (rising), Perpetual CVD (spiking), Funding Rates (softer)
ETF Flows → US Spot ETF Net Inflows (significantly above range)
On-Chain Profitability → Supply in Profit, NUPL, Realized P/L (all rising)
Observed Pattern → Macro-driven recovery met by emerging sell pressure and demand exhaustion risk
Timeframe → Last week (leading up to Sep 15, 2025)

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Outlook

This insight suggests that Bitcoin’s near-term future is delicately balanced, with a potential for continued price volatility as macro-driven momentum clashes with increasing sell pressure. Readers should closely watch for a sustained increase in spot buying volume to confirm a healthy uptrend, or a sharp decline in ETF inflows as a counter-signal indicating further weakness.