Bitcoin's Recovery Faces Selling Pressure despite Macro Momentum → Insights

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Briefing

The market saw Bitcoin recover to $116k, fueled by broader macro anticipation of a Fed rate cut, yet it now confronts renewed selling pressure. This suggests a cautious shift in investor behavior where initial positive momentum is met with profit-taking, particularly from those who bought at lower prices. The most important data point confirming this is the significant strengthening of US spot ETF net inflows, signaling robust institutional demand, juxtaposed with rising profit realization metrics that increase the risk of demand exhaustion.

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Context

Many in the market are currently questioning if Bitcoin’s recent rally is sustainable, or if it is merely a temporary bounce before further consolidation. Investors are seeking clarity on whether the underlying demand is strong enough to absorb potential selling, especially after a period of price recovery.

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Analysis

This analysis focuses on a confluence of on-chain and off-chain indicators, including Relative Strength Index (RSI), Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD), Open Interest, ETF flows, and profitability metrics like Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) and realized Profit/Loss. When RSI enters overbought territory, it signals strong price momentum, but a weakening CVD and flat volumes suggest that this momentum lacks broad conviction from sellers. Rising open interest in futures, alongside aggressive buy-side flows, indicates increased leverage. However, softer funding rates reveal reduced long demand, meaning that while traders are active, they are becoming more cautious about taking aggressive long positions.

The options market shows growing open interest but declining volatility spreads and skew, indicating a more complacent stance from traders, possibly under-hedging against future price swings. Crucially, significant net inflows into US spot ETFs demonstrate robust institutional demand, yet concurrently, profitability metrics like NUPL and realized P/L are rising. This indicates that many investors are in profit, which, while positive for sentiment, also creates an incentive for them to sell and realize those gains, leading to the observed sell pressure. This pattern suggests that while new capital is entering, existing holders are using the recovery to exit positions, creating a delicate balance in the market.

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Parameters

Key Metric – Spot Market Momentum → RSI surged into overbought territory, but CVD weakened and volumes held flat.
Derivatives Market Sentiment → Open interest rose in futures, perpetual CVD spiked, but funding rates softened.
Institutional Demand → US spot ETF net inflows strengthened significantly, far above range.
Investor Profitability → Supply in profit, NUPL, and realized P/L all rose.
Price Range Observed → Bitcoin recovered to $116k.

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Outlook

The current market outlook suggests Bitcoin may face continued volatility as it navigates the tension between institutional demand and profit-taking by existing holders. For the near term, Bitcoin could remain range-bound as these forces balance out. A confirming signal to watch would be a sustained increase in spot trading volumes alongside continued strong ETF inflows, indicating that new demand is consistently outpacing selling pressure. Conversely, a counter-signal would be a sharp decline in ETF inflows coupled with a significant drop in on-chain transfer volume, signaling a broader retreat of capital and user activity.

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Verdict

Bitcoin’s recent price recovery is underpinned by institutional interest, yet it remains vulnerable to profit-taking, requiring sustained demand to maintain upward momentum.

Signal Acquired from → Glassnode Insights