Briefing
The core insight is that Ethereum’s market price is now trading within a narrow range of the average cost basis of its most patient, long-term investors. This metric, the Accumulation Addresses Realized Price, acts as a powerful structural floor. It suggests that despite recent price weakness, the asset is entering a historical “bargain zone” where the most convicted capital tends to step in. This thesis is proven by the fact that the price ($3,150) is only 8% above the Accumulation Addresses Realized Price ($2,880), a level that has historically coincided with major accumulation pivots.
Context
The common question is whether the recent market correction is a temporary dip or the start of a deeper, prolonged bear market. Average investors are wondering if the price will collapse further or if a reliable bottom is being established. The data provides clarity by showing where the market’s most committed buyers have placed their collective floor.
Analysis
The Accumulation Addresses Realized Price (AARP) measures the average price at which all ETH currently held by consistently growing, non-trading wallets was acquired. It is the “cost floor” of the market’s most patient capital. When the market price approaches the AARP, it means the asset is trading at a discount relative to the long-term investors’ average purchase price.
The current convergence shows that the price is near this structural support, suggesting that the recent sell-off has been absorbed by high-conviction holders who are comfortable buying at this level, confirming a strong demand zone. These addresses have added 17 million ETH this year, demonstrating their conviction.
Parameters
- Key Metric → Accumulation Addresses Realized Price (AARP) → The average acquisition price of ETH held by wallets that consistently add to their supply.
- Current Price Proximity → Only 8% above AARP → The current market price is extremely close to the long-term investor cost floor.
- AARP Value → $2,880 – $2,895 → The specific price level where the most patient investors break even.
- Accumulated Supply → 17 million ETH added in 2025 → The total supply accumulated by these wallets this year, confirming their ongoing conviction.
Outlook
This convergence suggests the downside risk is structurally limited in the near term, as the market is approaching a zone where selling pressure is historically absorbed by patient capital. The price is finding a structural base. This accumulation pattern creates a strong foundation for the next upward move. The next signal to watch is a definitive bounce away from the $2,880 AARP level, coupled with a significant drop in ETH exchange reserves, which would confirm that the accumulated supply is being moved into secure, long-term storage.
Verdict
Ethereum’s price is testing a critical structural floor defined by the average cost of its most patient investors, confirming a high-conviction accumulation zone.
