Briefing
The core insight is that Bitcoin’s most experienced investors, the Long-Term Holders, are now actively selling their supply, a classic move that confirms the market is in a structural profit-taking phase. This distribution suggests a transition from the accumulation phase into a more volatile period where new demand must absorb veteran supply. The single most important data point proving this thesis is the Long-Term Holder Net Position Change moving into a “clearly negative zone,” meaning these experienced investors are reducing their holdings.
Context
The market is currently wondering if the price surge to new highs is sustainable or if a major correction is imminent. The common question is → Are the smart, experienced investors still holding, or are they quietly selling their Bitcoin to new buyers near the cycle peak? This data provides a direct answer by tracking the movement of the oldest coins.
Analysis
The Long-Term Holder Net Position Change measures the net flow of Bitcoin into or out of the wallets of investors who have held their coins for over 155 days. This metric is a key measure of market conviction → a positive value shows accumulation, and a negative value confirms distribution. The current pattern shows a clear shift to the negative zone, indicating that a significant volume of Bitcoin, accumulated during the bear market, is now being sold for profit.
This is a necessary action that clears out supply and resets the market before the next major price movement. The current distribution rate is at a level typical of a healthy market, not yet signaling a cycle top.
Parameters
- Key Metric → Long-Term Holder Net Position Change → The 30-day change in Bitcoin supply held by investors who have not moved their coins for over 155 days.
- Trend → Clearly Negative Zone → Signifies active selling or distribution by veteran investors.
- Price Level → Around $100,000 → The price point where profit-taking has intensified.
- Context → LTH Supply Decreasing → The total supply held by these long-term holders is now rapidly decreasing.
Outlook
This profit-taking is a normal, healthy mid-cycle event that prevents the market from overheating too quickly. The outlook suggests a period of market consolidation or sideways movement is likely as the selling supply is absorbed by new demand. The confirming signal to watch is the Short-Term Holder Realized Price → if the price continues to hold above this level, it confirms that new buyers are strong enough to absorb the veteran distribution without a major correction.
Verdict
Veteran Bitcoin investors are confirming the bull market’s structural shift by taking profits, a necessary step for sustainable price growth.
