Briefing
The core insight is a critical divergence between experienced investor supply and new market demand. Long-Term Holders (LTHs), who typically sell into strength during bull runs, have significantly increased their profit-taking since October. Crucially, the market’s Apparent Demand has simultaneously contracted, meaning there are fewer new buyers stepping in to absorb this supply.
This shift suggests the upward momentum is stalling, leading to recent price instability. The thesis is proven by the fact that Bitcoin has struggled to hold above $102,000 as demand entered the “red zone” of contraction.
Context
The central question for investors is whether the current price plateau is a healthy consolidation before the next leg up or a warning sign that the bull market is running out of steam. People are wondering if the big, smart money is quietly exiting and if there is enough fresh capital to keep the rally going.
Analysis
The analysis tracks two key on-chain forces ∞ Long-Term Holder (LTH) Spending and Apparent Demand Growth. LTHs are wallets that hold Bitcoin for over 155 days; their spending represents profit-taking by experienced investors. Apparent Demand measures the market’s capacity to absorb this selling. When LTH spending is high and demand is expanding (green zone), the price moves up.
The pattern observed is a rise in LTH selling pressure coinciding with a contraction in Apparent Demand (red zone). This means the supply from profit-takers is now outweighing the buying power of new participants, leading to a loss of momentum and a struggle to sustain higher price levels.
Parameters
- Key Metric – LTH Spending ∞ The 30-day sum of Long-Term Holder spending has been increasing since October 2025, indicating heightened profit-taking.
- Market Resistance Level ∞ Bitcoin has struggled to maintain stability above $102,000, which marks the price point where demand weakness became evident.
- Demand Indicator ∞ Apparent Demand Growth has moved into the contractionary “red zone,” signaling insufficient new buying to offset LTH supply.
Outlook
This insight suggests the near-term market will likely remain range-bound or face further consolidation as it attempts to find a new demand floor. The market must either see a significant decrease in LTH profit-taking or a strong, renewed influx of fresh capital (Apparent Demand expansion) to break out of this pattern. A confirming signal to watch for is a return of Apparent Demand to the “green zone,” which would validate a resumption of the uptrend.
Verdict
The combination of increasing Long-Term Holder profit-taking and contracting market demand confirms a significant loss of upward price momentum.
