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Insights

Experienced Investors Are Selling 22,000 Bitcoin Daily, Demanding Market Consolidation

Seasoned investors are consistently selling over 22K BTC daily, creating a supply overhang that signals demand exhaustion and a need for a longer price reset.
November 28, 20253 min

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Briefing

The core insight is that Long-Term Holders (LTHs) are engaged in sustained profit-taking, which is the primary source of current market weakness. This suggests the market is experiencing significant demand exhaustion , as new capital inflows are insufficient to absorb the constant supply being distributed by experienced investors. The thesis is proven by the 30-day Simple Moving Average of LTH Spend Volume, which has risen to over 22,000 BTC per day since the July market peak, confirming persistent selling pressure.

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Context

The market is currently wondering if the recent price drop is a healthy, quick correction or the start of a prolonged downturn. The key uncertainty is whether the selling is driven by panic or strategic profit-taking, and if there is enough new demand to push prices back up, especially with the price trading below the average cost of recent buyers.

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Analysis

The Long-Term Holder Spend Volume tracks coins moved by investors who have held them for over 155 days, acting as a direct measure of selling by seasoned, high-conviction market participants. When this metric rises significantly, it means old hands are strategically taking profits. The observed pattern shows this volume has steadily climbed to over 22,000 BTC per day since the July market peak. This persistent distribution, combined with the price trading below the Short-Term Holder cost basis, confirms that the supply being sold is simply exceeding the current buying demand, leading to structural fatigue and requiring a consolidation period.

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Parameters

  • Key Metric – LTH Spend Volume (30D-SMA) ∞ Over 22,000 BTC per day. This is the average daily volume of Bitcoin being sold by investors who have held their coins for over 155 days.
  • Market Peak Start Date ∞ July 2025. This is the point from which LTH distribution began to steadily accelerate.
  • Short-Term Holder Cost Basis ∞ Approximately $113.1k. The market is trading below this level, which historically tests the conviction of recent buyers.

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Outlook

This insight suggests the near-term future involves a necessary consolidation phase to allow demand to catch up and absorb the distributed supply. The market will likely struggle to sustain a rally until this selling pressure subsides. A confirming signal to watch for is a sustained drop in the LTH Spend Volume below the 15,000 BTC/day baseline, which would indicate that the most experienced sellers have exhausted their distribution.

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Verdict

Sustained profit-taking by long-term investors confirms a structural supply overhang, demanding a prolonged market consolidation to rebuild fresh demand.

Long term holder spending, LTH distribution, Supply overhang, Demand exhaustion, Market consolidation phase, Investor profit taking, Bitcoin onchain data, Short term holder cost, Mid term bearish, Realized volatility, Options market sentiment, Daily spend volume, Price reset needed, Sustained selling pressure, Bitcoin structural fatigue Signal Acquired from ∞ glassnode.com

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experienced investors

Definition ∞ Experienced investors are individuals or entities possessing substantial knowledge and a proven track record in financial markets, particularly those with exposure to digital assets.

recent buyers

Definition ∞ Recent buyers are individuals or entities who have acquired an asset within a relatively short, specified timeframe, typically days or weeks.

short-term holder cost

Definition ∞ Short-term holder cost refers to the average price at which cryptocurrency assets were acquired by market participants who have held them for a relatively brief duration, typically less than 155 days.

investors

Definition ∞ 'Investors' are individuals or entities that allocate capital to digital assets with the expectation of generating a return on their investment.

lth distribution

Definition ∞ LTH Distribution refers to the movement of digital assets held by Long-Term Holders.

holder cost basis

Definition ∞ Holder cost basis refers to the original price or value at which a digital asset was acquired by its current owner, including any associated fees.

consolidation phase

Definition ∞ A consolidation phase is a period in financial markets where asset prices trade within a relatively narrow range.

market consolidation

Definition ∞ Market Consolidation describes a phase in financial markets where prices trade within a defined range, indicating a period of indecision or equilibrium between buyers and sellers.

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