Briefing
The core insight is that experienced investors are consistently distributing their Bitcoin holdings at a high volume. This persistent profit-taking suggests the market is in a crucial transitional phase where the conviction of new buyers is being rigorously tested by seasoned sellers. The trend shows that Long-Term Holder Spend Volume has sustained a distribution rate of over 22,000 BTC per day since the July market peak, confirming that supply pressure from veteran investors is the primary force preventing a renewed rally.
Context
The market has been consolidating after a recent high, leading many to wonder if the bull run is over or simply pausing. The central uncertainty is whether the current price weakness is due to exhausted demand or sustained selling pressure. Investors are asking ∞ Are the smart, experienced players holding firm, or are they quietly exiting the market and signaling a deeper correction?
Analysis
The key metric is Long-Term Holder (LTH) Spend Volume , which measures the daily amount of Bitcoin moving on the blockchain that was last active at least 155 days ago. This metric is a direct proxy for the profit-taking behavior of the most experienced, long-term investors. When this volume rises, it means old, profitable coins are being sold into the market, creating supply pressure.
The data shows that the 30-day average of this volume has been elevated and persistent, climbing from a baseline of 10,000 BTC per day to over 22,000 BTC per day since the market peak in July. This sustained distribution confirms that the recent price fragility is fundamentally a supply-side story, driven by veteran investors realizing substantial profits.
Parameters
- Key Metric ∞ LTH Spend Volume (30D-SMA) – The 30-day average of Bitcoin sold by investors who held their coins for over 155 days.
- Distribution Rate ∞ Over 22,000 BTC per day – The current rate of profit-taking by Long-Term Holders.
- Baseline Volume ∞ 10,000 BTC per day – The historical low-activity level for LTH spending.
- Distribution Period ∞ Since July 2025 – The duration of the sustained high-volume selling trend.
Outlook
This persistent LTH distribution suggests the near-term market will remain cautious and range-bound as this large supply is absorbed. The market is in a structural transition, requiring time to digest the selling from veteran holders. The single most important confirming signal to watch for is a sharp decline in the LTH Spend Volume metric, which would indicate that the most significant selling pressure has finally exhausted itself, clearing the path for a renewed upward trend.
Verdict
The market is currently in a transitional phase where veteran profit-taking is the dominant supply-side force.
