Briefing
The core insight reveals persistent profit-taking by experienced investors, a trend suggesting that current market demand is exhausted and unable to absorb the constant supply. This structural weakness means the market is likely entering a prolonged consolidation phase to rebuild confidence and clear the supply overhang. This thesis is proven by the fact that Long-Term Holders are consistently spending over 22,000 Bitcoin daily, a distribution rate that has accelerated steadily since the July market peak.
Context
After a significant price rally, the key question for many investors is whether the recent pullback is a healthy pause before the next leg up or a sign of deeper structural weakness. People are wondering if the big, experienced players are using the market strength to sell their coins, and if there is enough new demand to absorb this supply and prevent a deeper correction.
Analysis
The key indicator is the Long-Term Holder Spend Volume, which measures the amount of Bitcoin moving off-chain from wallets that have held the coins for over 155 days. When this metric rises, it signals that experienced investors are taking profits or reducing risk. The data shows this volume has steadily climbed since the July market peak, accelerating to over 22,000 BTC per day.
This persistent, high-volume distribution confirms that seasoned investors are actively selling their supply. When this selling pressure is met with a price drop below the Short-Term Holder cost basis → the average price paid by recent buyers → it means new demand is failing to absorb the supply, leading to the conclusion of demand exhaustion and a necessary market reset.
Parameters
- Long-Term Holder Spend Volume → Over 22,000 BTC per day, representing the persistent profit-taking by seasoned investors since July 2025.
- Short-Term Holder Cost Basis → Approximately $113,000, the average price paid by recent buyers, which the market is currently trading below.
- Distribution Start → July 2025, the point from which LTH spending began its steady acceleration.
Outlook
This persistent distribution suggests the market will likely enter a period of prolonged consolidation to allow new capital to flow in and fully absorb the supply sold by long-term holders. The near-term future is defined by a lack of momentum until this supply overhang is cleared. A confirming signal to watch for is a sharp decline in the Long-Term Holder Spend Volume back toward its 10,000 BTC baseline, which would indicate experienced investors have finished their profit-taking phase.
Verdict
Persistent profit-taking by experienced investors confirms demand exhaustion, mandating a longer market consolidation phase.
