Briefing
The core insight reveals that experienced, long-term Bitcoin holders are aggressively taking profits. This current market weakness is a structural distribution phase, which is a significant shift from a simple price dip. This sustained selling pressure from seasoned investors is exhausting new demand, forcing the market to trade below the average cost basis of recent buyers, and necessitates a period of prolonged consolidation to absorb the spent supply. This distribution is proven by the Long-Term Holder Spend Volume, which has more than doubled from its baseline, now exceeding 22,000 BTC per day on a 30-day average.
Context
The common question in the market is whether the recent price drop is a healthy, temporary pullback or a sign of deeper structural weakness. Investors are wondering if the bull market is simply pausing or if the smart money is quietly exiting, which would signal a more significant shift in market momentum and a longer wait for the next major rally.
Analysis
The key metric is the Long-Term Holder Spend Volume , which measures the amount of Bitcoin moved by wallets that have held their coins for at least 155 days. When this indicator goes up, it means experienced investors are moving their old, profitable coins, typically to sell them. The data shows a clear, persistent pattern of rising LTH spending since the market peak in July, with the 30-day average now at over 22,000 BTC per day. This indicates that the most convicted investors are distributing supply at a rate that the market’s current demand cannot sustainably absorb, directly leading to the conclusion that the market is in a structural consolidation phase driven by profit-taking.
Parameters
- Long-Term Holder Spend Volume (30D-SMA) ∞ Over 22,000 BTC per day, indicating the rate of selling by experienced investors.
- Short-Term Holder Cost Basis ∞ Approximately $113.1k, the average price at which recent buyers acquired their coins.
- Timeframe of Distribution ∞ Since the market peak in July 2025, showing a sustained trend.
Outlook
This insight suggests the near-term future involves a prolonged period of sideways price action and consolidation, as the market must absorb the significant supply being distributed by long-term holders. A sustainable recovery requires a substantial influx of new demand to step in and overpower this selling pressure. A confirming signal to watch for is a drop in the LTH Spend Volume back toward the 10,000 BTC baseline, which would signal that experienced investors have finished their profit-taking.
Verdict
Sustained profit-taking from experienced investors is the structural headwind forcing the market into an extended consolidation phase.
