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Experienced Investors Sustain Selling Pressure; Demand Exhaustion Confirmed

Persistent profit-taking by long-term holders, combined with new buyers realizing losses, signals the market is in a deep consolidation phase.
November 14, 20253 min

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Briefing

The core insight reveals a fragile market structure defined by demand exhaustion from new buyers colliding with sustained profit-taking from veteran investors. This suggests the recent price consolidation is a critical transitional phase, where the market is struggling to absorb supply and risks a deeper contraction. The most important data point confirming this thesis is that Long-Term Holder spending has been persistently above 22,000 BTC per day since the July market peak, indicating continuous selling pressure from the most experienced cohort.

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Context

Many investors are wondering if the recent price correction is a healthy consolidation before a rally or the start of a deeper, mid-term bearish phase. The common question is ∞ “Are the long-term, convicted holders still buying, or are they cashing out, and is there enough new demand to absorb their supply?”

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Analysis

The two key metrics are the Long-Term Holder (LTH) Spend Volume and the Short-Term Holder (STH) Cost Basis. LTH Spend Volume measures the daily movement of coins that have not moved for over 155 days. When this metric rises, it means experienced investors are taking profits, injecting supply back into the market. The STH Cost Basis is the average price at which newer investors (holding coins for less than 155 days) acquired their Bitcoin; it acts as a critical psychological and technical support level.

The current pattern shows LTH spending is elevated and sustained, meaning veteran sellers are consistently active. Simultaneously, the price has failed to reclaim the STH Cost Basis of approximately $113.1k. This failure indicates that new demand is exhausted, as the average recent buyer is now underwater and may capitulate, reinforcing the need for a cautious outlook.

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Parameters

  • LTH Spend Volume (30D-SMA) ∞ Over 22,000 BTC/day – The persistent daily volume of older coins being sold since July.
  • Short-Term Holder Cost Basis ∞ ~$113.1k – The average price paid by recent buyers, acting as a key resistance level.
  • Percent of Supply in Profit ∞ Dropped to ~85% – Implies 15% of the circulating supply is now held at a loss.
  • Options Market Sentiment ∞ Leaning Bearish – Traders are favoring put options over calls, indicating a defensive posture.

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Outlook

This persistent supply from experienced holders and the lack of conviction from new buyers suggest the market will likely remain in a prolonged consolidation phase. A near-term recovery is contingent on a significant influx of spot demand to absorb the LTH selling. The key confirming signal to watch is the reclamation of the $113.1k STH Cost Basis ; failing to hold this level could accelerate the market’s descent into a deeper contraction phase.

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Verdict

The market is in a fragile, transitional phase where sustained profit-taking is overwhelming new demand, signaling a high risk of prolonged consolidation.

long-term holder spending, short-term holder cost, demand exhaustion, sustained profit taking, market consolidation, price floor test, investor conviction, on-chain metrics, realized volatility, options market fear, put call ratio, open interest high, supply distribution, cycle fragility, price discovery failure, accumulation zone, capital rotation, risk appetite fading, leverage reset, market fatigue, investor sentiment, profit taking pressure, cost basis support, macro trend shift Signal Acquired from ∞ glassnode.com

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transitional phase

Definition ∞ A transitional phase in cryptocurrency markets denotes an intermediate period of shifting market dynamics, often occurring between major trends or cycles.

consolidation

Definition ∞ Consolidation, in financial markets, describes a period where an asset's price trades within a narrow range, indicating a balance between buying and selling pressure.

long-term holder

Definition ∞ A long-term holder in the digital asset market refers to an individual or entity that retains a cryptocurrency asset for an extended duration, typically exceeding one year.

cost basis

Definition ∞ The original purchase price of a digital asset, including any associated fees or commissions.

short-term holder cost

Definition ∞ Short-term holder cost refers to the average price at which cryptocurrency assets were acquired by market participants who have held them for a relatively brief duration, typically less than 155 days.

profit

Definition ∞ Profit signifies the financial gain realized when the revenue generated from an economic activity exceeds the associated expenses.

options market

Definition ∞ An options market is a financial marketplace where traders buy and sell contracts that give the buyer the right, but not the obligation, to purchase or sell an underlying asset at a specific price on or before a certain date.

holders

Definition ∞ Holders are individuals or entities that possess and retain ownership of a particular digital asset, such as a cryptocurrency or token, over a sustained period.

market

Definition ∞ In the financial and digital asset context, a market represents any venue or system where assets are exchanged between participants, driven by supply and demand dynamics.

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