Briefing
The core insight is that the Bitcoin network’s transaction profile has structurally matured, shifting from a mix of retail and large-scale use to one overwhelmingly dominated by institutional capital. This suggests that retail and speculative activity has largely migrated to off-chain platforms like exchanges and ETFs, while the base layer is now reserved for high-value settlement. This thesis is proven by the fact that transactions exceeding $100,000$ now represent a massive 89% of the total on-chain transfer volume.
Context
The market often wonders if Bitcoin’s growth is still driven by organic, grassroots adoption or if it is becoming a purely institutional asset. People are asking → Is the base layer still a public ledger for everyone, or has it become a settlement network only for the largest players? This data provides a clear answer by dissecting the composition of the total value being transferred.
Analysis
We analyze the composition of on-chain volume by transaction size. This indicator measures what percentage of the total dollar value moved on the blockchain comes from transactions above a certain threshold, such as $100,000. When this percentage rises, it means the network is being used by fewer, larger entities.
The pattern shows a dramatic increase, with the share of volume from transactions over $100,000$ surging from 66% in late 2022 to 89% today. This pattern leads to the conclusion that the Bitcoin base layer is now functioning primarily as a high-security, high-value settlement rail for institutions and whales, confirming a fundamental shift in network utility.
Parameters
- Share of Volume > $100K → 89% (The percentage of total daily volume transferred in transactions exceeding $100,000, up from 66% in late 2022).
- Daily Transaction Count → 320,000 to 500,000 (The current range of daily on-chain transactions, down from a cycle peak of 734,000).
Outlook
This structural shift suggests the Bitcoin base layer will continue to be a “ghost town” for small transactions but a critical settlement layer for global capital. The near-term future points to greater price stability and less volatility from retail speculation, as that activity is now mostly off-chain. A confirming signal to watch for is a continued rise in the average value per transaction, while a counter-signal would be a sudden, sustained spike in daily transaction count back toward previous highs, which would suggest a return of retail frenzy.
Verdict
The Bitcoin base layer has completed its transition into a high-security, institutional settlement network, with retail activity largely migrated to off-chain platforms.
