Historical Metric Signals a Deep Bitcoin Price Floor near Forty-Five Thousand → Insights

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Briefing

The Cumulative Value Days Destroyed (CVDD) metric indicates that Bitcoin has not yet reached the structural price floor historically associated with major cycle bottoms. This suggests that the recent market volatility may not have completed the final capitulation event required to reset the market for a sustained recovery. The CVDD line, which has consistently marked cycle lows, points to a potential deeper corrective bottom near the $45,880 price level, proving that significant downside risk remains.

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Context

After a period of intense market volatility and a sharp price decline, the central question for investors is whether the worst is over. Many are wondering if the recent drop represents the final correction before a new uptrend, or if the market needs a deeper, structural flush-out to establish a true, long-term cycle bottom. This on-chain data helps answer what price level would signal the maximum financial pain and ultimate accumulation zone.

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Analysis

The Cumulative Value Days Destroyed (CVDD) is a powerful on-chain metric that tracks the economic weight of transacted coins. It is calculated by dividing the cumulative sum of Value Days Destroyed (VDD) by the total market age. VDD measures the total value of coins moved on-chain, weighted by the number of days they were held (their “age”). The CVDD line, therefore, represents a long-term trend of capital flow that has historically aligned with the exact price points of major market bottoms.

When the market price falls to this line, it signals that long-term investors are selling at a significant loss, representing the final, structural capitulation phase. The data shows that the current price is trading far above the CVDD-derived support level, indicating that the market has not yet experienced the final selling pressure from long-term holders.

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Parameters

CVDD Price Target → $45,880 (The historical price level that aligns with past cycle bottoms, indicating the deepest structural support)
Current Price Range → ~$90,700 (Bitcoin’s price at the time of the analysis, trading significantly above the CVDD floor)
Recent Volatility → 17% drop (The recent decline from $110,000 to $91,000 that highlights ongoing market risk)

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Outlook

The CVDD metric suggests a significant downside risk remains in the market, as the price has not yet tested the structural support level that historically precedes a new macro cycle. Investors should prepare for the possibility of a deeper correction toward the $45,880 zone if market liquidity continues to dry up. The confirming signal to watch for is a sustained price drop that approaches the CVDD line, coupled with an extreme reading on a sentiment index like the Fear & Greed Index, which would confirm the final capitulation of all market participants.

The data confirms that the final, structural capitulation event required to establish a macro cycle bottom has not yet occurred.

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