Briefing
The Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) is flashing a rare bullish divergence, indicating that investor conviction is exceptionally strong despite the recent price drop. This suggests the market has reached a structural floor, as holders are actively refusing to sell their coins at a loss, preventing the cascade of panic that marks true capitulation. The most important data point is that as the price made a lower low near $88,400, the SOPR metric simultaneously made a higher low, rising from 0.98 to 0.99, confirming that sellers are exiting at better prices.
Context
The market has been gripped by uncertainty, with the recent price correction leading many to wonder if a deeper, more painful capitulation is imminent. The common question is whether the recent dip is a simple correction or the start of a bear market, and whether average investors are finally selling their holdings in a panic. This data provides a clear answer by looking directly at the profit/loss status of every coin that moves.
Analysis
The SOPR metric measures the average profit or loss of all coins moved on the blockchain. A value above 1 means the average seller is making a profit; a value below 1 means they are taking a loss. The recent pattern shows a powerful divergence ∞ while the price fell to a lower low, the SOPR metric rose from 0.98 to 0.99. This means that as the price dropped, the coins that were sold were sold at less of a loss than before.
This pattern confirms that the most stressed sellers ∞ the “weak hands” ∞ have been flushed out, and the remaining holders possess strong conviction, actively choosing to hold their coins rather than realize a loss at the current lower prices. This refusal to sell at cheaper prices is a classic sign of selling exhaustion.
Parameters
- Key Metric – Short-Term Holder SOPR ∞ Measures the average profit or loss of coins moved on-chain.
- Divergence Trend – Bullish Signal ∞ Price made a lower low while SOPR made a higher low.
- SOPR Value Change – Selling Exhaustion ∞ Rose from 0.98 to 0.99 during the price drop.
- Historical Precedent – Potential Rally ∞ A similar SOPR divergence previously preceded a 46% price surge.
Outlook
This strong signal of holder conviction suggests the near-term future is bullish, as the structural selling pressure required for a deep crash is now exhausted. The market is now poised for a relief rally or a full trend reversal. Readers should watch for a sustained break and hold above the $95,700 resistance level. A clear confirming signal would be the SOPR metric rising decisively above 1.0 and staying there, which would confirm that the average seller is now consistently profitable.
Verdict
Investor refusal to sell at a loss confirms selling exhaustion and signals a strong market bottom.
