Briefing
The Bitcoin price has broken below the average cost basis of recent investors, a definitive on-chain signal that the market has undergone a structural reset and short-term conviction has vanished. This breakdown suggests that the recent market decline is more than a simple pullback; it is a full capitulation event for short-term holders, which historically cleanses speculation from the system. The entire market’s attention must now shift to the next major on-chain support level, the True Market Mean, which sits at a critical $81,700.
Context
The common question in the market is whether the recent volatility has found a bottom or if more significant pain is coming. Investors are wondering if the current price level is a healthy consolidation or the beginning of a deeper correction. This data provides a clear answer by showing exactly where the average recent investor is positioned and what price level must hold to prevent a major structural breakdown.
Analysis
The Short-Term Holder (STH) Cost Basis is the average price at which all coins held for less than 155 days were acquired. It acts as a crucial psychological and structural support, as a price break below it means the average recent buyer is now holding a loss, which often triggers panic selling. Bitcoin’s price has fallen below this STH Cost Basis, which was at $90,900, confirming that recent buyers are capitulating. The next line of defense is the True Market Mean, a more robust, medium-term support level that averages the cost basis of all active investors.
The current pattern shows a complete loss of short-term support, directing all focus to the True Market Mean at $81,700. This indicator measures whether the market is fundamentally supported by the cost of acquisition for the majority of active participants.
Parameters
- Short-Term Holder Cost Basis → $90,900 → The average price paid by investors who bought in the last five months.
- Active Investors Mean Cost → $88,100 → The average cost of all investors who have been active in the market recently.
- True Market Mean Support → $81,700 → The next major on-chain support level for the medium-term market structure.
Outlook
The market is now in a high-risk zone following the failure of key short-term support levels. The near-term future is entirely dependent on the defense of the $81,700 True Market Mean. A successful bounce from this level would confirm a healthy, structural reset and set the stage for a recovery, as it would signal that the broader active investor base is willing to defend their cost. Conversely, a decisive break below $81,700 would be the single most important counter-signal, confirming a deeper correction is underway and suggesting the market has not yet found its true floor.
Verdict
The failure of short-term investor cost support confirms a complete market reset, making the $81,700 True Market Mean the final on-chain line of defense against a deeper correction.
