Briefing
Long-Term Holder (LTH) profit-taking is increasing, a typical pattern during bull market strength. However, the critical new signal is the market’s inability to absorb this supply, suggesting a clear loss of momentum and a struggle to maintain higher price levels. This dynamic suggests that fresh capital inflow is insufficient to counteract the veteran selling pressure, which could lead to a range-bound period or a deeper correction. This imbalance is proven by the Apparent Demand Growth metric, which has entered the ‘red zone’ since October 2025, showing a significant contraction in buying power.
Context
What is causing the recent price struggle and the inability to sustain new highs? The average person is wondering if the market is simply consolidating or if major players are quietly signaling a top. This data helps answer whether there is enough new money entering the system to support the current valuation and absorb the natural profit-taking that occurs when prices rise.
Analysis
The analysis centers on two key on-chain indicators → Long-Term Holder (LTH) Spending and Apparent Demand Growth. LTH Spending tracks coins held for over six months that are now moving on-chain, which is a proxy for veteran investors taking profits. When LTH selling increases, it means a large supply is hitting the market. Apparent Demand Growth measures the market’s capacity to absorb this supply → it is essentially the new capital inflow or buying power.
Historically, a healthy bull market sees LTH selling coincide with expanding demand (a ‘green zone’), allowing the price to push higher. The current pattern shows LTH selling increasing since early October 2025, but critically, Apparent Demand Growth has simultaneously moved into the ‘red zone’. This divergence means the supply from veteran sellers is not being met by sufficient new buyers, causing the price to stall and struggle to sustain levels above $102,000. The data is telling us that the market’s foundation of fresh demand is weakening.
Parameters
- Long-Term Holder Spending Trend → Increasing since early October 2025. (Indicates veteran profit-taking is rising).
- Apparent Demand Growth → Entered the ‘red zone’ since October 2025. (Indicates market’s capacity to absorb supply is contracting).
- Price Stability Point → Struggling to sustain above $102,000. (The level where the demand/supply imbalance becomes visible).
Outlook
This imbalance suggests the near-term market will likely remain range-bound or face a moderate price correction until fresh demand returns. The selling pressure from long-term holders will continue to cap upside moves until new capital can fully absorb it. A reader should watch for the Apparent Demand Growth metric to exit the ‘red zone’ and re-enter the ‘green zone’. This would be the confirming signal that new investors are stepping in with enough conviction to overcome the current supply and resume a strong upward trend.
Verdict
The current market struggle is a direct result of weakening demand failing to absorb increasing profit-taking from veteran investors.
