Long-Term Bitcoin Holders Are Accumulating Heavily Signaling Major Conviction → Insights

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Briefing

The market’s most patient investors are entering a major accumulation phase, a strong signal of conviction in future price appreciation. This behavior, known as a Long-Term Holder (LTH) accumulation cycle, suggests that the market’s supply is tightening as experienced participants refuse to sell at current levels. LTH spending has dropped to its lowest point since September 2024, proving this thesis. In the last 20 days alone, this cohort added a staggering 300,000 BTC to their holdings.

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Context

A common market uncertainty is whether the recent price movement is sustainable or merely a short-term rally driven by speculative trading. Investors are asking if the foundational demand is strong enough to support a true upward trend, or if the market’s most experienced players are secretly selling into the strength. This on-chain data provides a definitive answer by revealing the actions of the “strong hands” who typically dictate macro market cycles.

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Analysis

The key indicator is Long-Term Holder (LTH) Net Position Change. An LTH is any Bitcoin wallet that has held its coins for more than 155 days, representing the most experienced and conviction-driven segment of the market. When LTHs increase their holdings (accumulation), they are taking coins off the liquid market and placing them into deep storage, signaling they believe the price will be significantly higher later.

When LTHs decrease their holdings (spending/distribution), they are realizing profits. The current pattern shows a sharp drop in LTH spending and a corresponding surge in accumulation, a historical precursor to major market rallies because it creates a supply shock that future demand must absorb.

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Parameters

LTH Net Position Change → LTHs added 300,000 BTC in the last 20 days. This is the total Bitcoin accumulated by experienced holders.
LTH Spending Level → Spending is at its lowest level since September 2024. This measures the rate at which experienced holders are selling.

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Outlook

This strong accumulation suggests the near-term future involves a tightening supply, which typically precedes a significant upward price movement once demand accelerates. The market is absorbing supply from other sellers, such as miners, due to the LTH demand. To confirm this trend, a reader should watch for the price to break above its recent local high, which would validate the LTHs’ conviction and likely trigger a broader market rally.

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Verdict

The market is in a deep accumulation phase driven by its most patient investors, signaling strong confidence in a future price surge.

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