Briefing
Long-term Bitcoin holders recently sold approximately 183,000 BTC over the past month, signaling a significant shift in supply. This distribution suggests a potential profit-taking phase or a re-evaluation of positions by seasoned investors. The market faces a crucial “absorption test,” where the strength of new demand, especially from spot Bitcoin ETFs, determines if this released supply can be neutralized without major price impact. A key data point supporting this is the $757 million in net subscriptions seen by US spot Bitcoin ETFs on September 10, indicating robust institutional interest.
Context
Many are wondering if the recent Bitcoin price movements indicate underlying weakness or a healthy cycle of supply redistribution. Is the market strong enough to handle significant selling pressure from long-term holders? This data helps clarify whether new capital is stepping in to absorb older coins.
Analysis
The “Long-Term Holder Net Position Change” tracks the monthly shift in Bitcoin supply held by investors who have kept their coins for over 155 days. A negative reading, like the recent 183,000 BTC decline, means these experienced holders are selling. This metric often signals distribution phases in the market. Simultaneously, “illiquid supply,” coins rarely moved, reached a record 14.3 million BTC in late August, suggesting a strong base of committed holders.
The critical observation is how spot Bitcoin ETF inflows are interacting with this LTH distribution. Significant ETF demand acts as a counter-force, absorbing the supply released by older wallets.
Parameters
- Long-Term Holder Net Position Change → -183,000 BTC over the last 30 days
- Largest One-Day LTH Spent → ~8,000 BTC in early September
- Record Illiquid Supply → ~14.3 million BTC in late August
- US Spot Bitcoin ETF Inflows → ~$757 million net subscriptions on September 10
- LTH Definition → Coins held for over 155 days
Outlook
This insight suggests the market is navigating a critical phase of supply absorption. The near-term future depends on the sustained strength of new demand, particularly from spot Bitcoin ETFs. Watch for the LTH Net Position Change to move back towards zero or positive, indicating cooling distribution. Consistent, broad ETF inflows across multiple issuers would confirm durable primary-market demand.
Signal Acquired from → cryptoslate.com
Briefing
Long-term Bitcoin holders recently sold approximately 183,000 BTC over the past month, signaling a significant shift in supply. This distribution suggests a potential profit-taking phase or a re-evaluation of positions by seasoned investors. The market faces a crucial “absorption test,” where the strength of new demand, especially from spot Bitcoin ETFs, determines if this released supply can be neutralized without major price impact. A key data point supporting this is the $757 million in net subscriptions seen by US spot Bitcoin ETFs on September 10, indicating robust institutional interest.
Context
Many are wondering if the recent Bitcoin price movements indicate underlying weakness or a healthy cycle of supply redistribution. Is the market strong enough to handle significant selling pressure from long-term holders? This data helps clarify whether new capital is stepping in to absorb older coins.
Analysis
The “Long-Term Holder Net Position Change” tracks the monthly shift in Bitcoin supply held by investors who have kept their coins for over 155 days. A negative reading, like the recent 183,000 BTC decline, means these experienced holders are selling. This metric often signals distribution phases in the market. Simultaneously, “illiquid supply,” coins rarely moved, reached a record 14.3 million BTC in late August, suggesting a strong base of committed holders.
The critical observation is how spot Bitcoin ETF inflows are interacting with this LTH distribution. Significant ETF demand acts as a counter-force, absorbing the supply released by older wallets.
Parameters
- Long-Term Holder Net Position Change → -183,000 BTC over the last 30 days
- Largest One-Day LTH Spent → ~8,000 BTC in early September
- Record Illiquid Supply → ~14.3 million BTC in late August
- US Spot Bitcoin ETF Inflows → ~$757 million net subscriptions on September 10
- LTH Definition → Coins held for over 155 days
Outlook
This insight suggests the market is navigating a critical phase of supply absorption. The near-term future depends on the sustained strength of new demand, particularly from spot Bitcoin ETFs. Watch for the LTH Net Position Change to move back towards zero or positive, indicating cooling distribution. Consistent, broad ETF inflows across multiple issuers would confirm durable primary-market demand.
Signal Acquired from → cryptoslate.com
