Briefing
The most experienced Bitcoin investors, known as Long-Term Holders (LTHs), have ceased their aggressive selling and have begun to accumulate coins again. This shift from distribution to accumulation is a classic on-chain signal suggesting that the recent market correction has likely found its floor and is transitioning into a consolidation phase. This change in behavior confirms the market is absorbing the supply sold by newer, less-convicted buyers. The single most important data point proving this thesis is the clear, recent pivot in LTH net position change, which is now showing renewed accumulation after months of heavy profit-taking.
Context
After a significant price drawdown, the primary question for all market participants is whether the recent correction is a temporary dip within a larger bull market or the start of a prolonged bear trend. Average investors are wondering if the big, confident players are done selling and if it is safe to re-enter the market. This data helps answer the question of whether the structural selling pressure from the most convicted cohort has been exhausted.
Analysis
The key indicator is the Long-Term Holder (LTH) Net Position Change, which measures the 30-day change in the total coin supply held by addresses that have not moved their coins for over 155 days. This cohort represents the most convicted investors. When this metric is negative, LTHs are taking profits and adding supply to the market; when it turns positive, it signals LTHs view the current price as a buying opportunity.
The pattern observed is a clear, recent pivot from a strong distribution phase, which fueled the correction, to a renewed accumulation phase. This shift indicates LTHs believe the price has dropped enough to justify buying again, effectively removing the most significant source of structural selling pressure from the market.
Parameters
- Key Metric – LTH Net Position Change → Measures the 30-day change in the supply held by investors who have held coins for over 155 days.
- Trend Observation → LTH behavior has pivoted from distribution to renewed accumulation in recent days.
- STH Realized Loss Ratio → Short-Term Holders (new buyers) have seen their Realized Profit/Loss Ratio plummet to 0.07, confirming a mass capitulation at a loss.
Outlook
This structural shift suggests the market is entering a low-volatility accumulation range where the price floor is firming up. The near-term future points to consolidation as Long-Term Holders absorb the remaining supply from weaker hands. A confirming signal to watch for is a sustained, positive LTH Net Position Change over the next two weeks, coupled with a continued drop in exchange balances, which would further tighten the available supply and signal the next upward move.
Verdict
Long-Term Holders are signaling that the structural correction is over, establishing a strong foundation for the next market advance.
