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Briefing

The recent Bitcoin price correction has successfully cleared market stress, leading to a structural shift in investor behavior. Mid-sized holders, often referred to as “sharks” and “whales,” have transitioned from selling to aggressive accumulation, absorbing the supply that left exchanges. This pivot confirms the market is in a “reset phase” and has found a local bottom, proven by the massive 100,000 ∞ 120,000 BTC that exited exchanges between October and November 2025.

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Context

After a sharp price drop, many investors are wondering if the correction is over or if a deeper bear market is beginning. Is the heavy selling pressure exhausted, or are major holders continuing to distribute their coins? On-chain data provides a clear answer by tracking where coins are moving and which investor groups are actively buying or selling.

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Analysis

We track Exchange Netflow to see if more coins are moving onto exchanges (to sell) or off exchanges (to hold). The data shows a massive net outflow of 100,000 ∞ 120,000 BTC in recent weeks, one of the largest outflows in recent history. This means a significant amount of Bitcoin has moved into private, long-term storage, reducing the immediate sellable supply. Furthermore, the Holder Net Position Change for wallets holding 1 ∞ 10 BTC and 10 ∞ 100 BTC has flipped from negative (selling) to positive (buying).

This indicates that the mid-sized investor class is viewing the recent price drop as a major buying opportunity, absorbing the supply and confirming the easing of sell-side pressure. Momentum indicators moving into oversold territory support this narrative of market stress clearing.

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Parameters

  • Net Exchange Outflow ∞ 100,000 ∞ 120,000 BTC (The total amount of Bitcoin that left centralized exchanges in the recent correction).
  • Accumulation Group ∞ 1 ∞ 10 BTC and 10 ∞ 100 BTC Wallets (The specific investor groups that flipped from distribution to accumulation).
  • Stabilization Range ∞ $94,000 ∞ $100,000 (The price zone where momentum indicators moved to oversold conditions).

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Outlook

This accumulation signal suggests the near-term future is one of consolidation and recovery. The structural buying from mid-sized holders creates a strong price floor, limiting downside risk. Readers should watch for a sustained reduction in ETF outflows (below $100 million daily) as a confirming signal that institutional selling pressure is fully exhausted, which would allow the on-chain accumulation to drive the price higher.

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Verdict

The market has reset, and strong accumulation by mid-sized holders confirms a structural local price bottom.

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mid-sized holders

Definition ∞ Mid-Sized Holders, in the context of digital assets, represent individuals or entities possessing a substantial yet not dominant quantity of a particular cryptocurrency.

selling pressure

Definition ∞ Selling pressure indicates a market condition where a greater number of participants are seeking to sell an asset than buy it.

bitcoin

Definition ∞ Bitcoin is the first and most prominent decentralized digital currency, operating on a peer-to-peer network without central oversight.

market stress

Definition ∞ Market stress describes a condition in financial markets characterized by heightened volatility, reduced liquidity, and a general decline in asset prices.

btc

Definition ∞ BTC is the ticker symbol for Bitcoin, the first and most prominent decentralized digital currency.

accumulation

Definition ∞ An accumulation refers to the process by which an entity or entities acquire a significant quantity of a digital asset over time.

oversold conditions

Definition ∞ Oversold conditions describe a market state where a digital asset's price has fallen excessively and is considered undervalued by technical indicators.

consolidation

Definition ∞ Consolidation, in financial markets, describes a period where an asset's price trades within a narrow range, indicating a balance between buying and selling pressure.

holders

Definition ∞ Holders are individuals or entities that possess and retain ownership of a particular digital asset, such as a cryptocurrency or token, over a sustained period.