Briefing
Bitcoin’s price has fallen below the average purchase price of recent investors, signaling a critical structural failure. This suggests the market is suffering from demand exhaustion and cannot absorb the persistent supply being sold by experienced, long-term holders. The failure to reclaim the Short-Term Holder Cost Basis, currently around $113,100, proves that the market must enter an extended consolidation phase to rebuild strength.
Context
After a major price rally, the average person wonders if the market is simply correcting healthily or if the underlying demand has vanished. Investors need to know if the recent price drop is just a dip to buy or the start of a prolonged downturn that will require a significant amount of time to recover.
Analysis
The Short-Term Holder Cost Basis tracks the average price at which coins held for less than 155 days were acquired. This metric acts as a dynamic support level in bull markets. When the price drops below this line, it means the average recent buyer is now underwater, testing their conviction and signaling that new demand is too weak to counter the supply being sold.
The current drop below the $113,100 level is compounded by Long-Term Holders, who are selling over 22,000 BTC daily. These experienced investors are now distributing their supply even as the price falls, a behavioral shift from earlier in the cycle that confirms deep market fatigue and a lack of conviction from new capital.
Parameters
- Short-Term Holder Cost Basis → $113,100. (The average price paid by investors who bought Bitcoin in the last five months.)
- LTH Daily Distribution → Over 22,000 BTC. (The daily volume of Bitcoin being sold by investors holding for over 155 days.)
Outlook
This insight suggests the market’s near-term future involves a prolonged period of consolidation or further price decline. A recovery is unlikely until new capital inflows are strong enough to push the price decisively back above the Short-Term Holder Cost Basis. A confirming signal to watch for is a drop in the Long-Term Holder selling volume, which would indicate their distribution is finally exhausted and a structural bottom is near.
Verdict
The market has entered a phase of structural fatigue, requiring an extended consolidation period to absorb veteran investor selling.
