Briefing
The core insight reveals that recent Bitcoin buyers, known as Short-Term Holders, refused to capitulate during the recent price dip, confirming their average acquisition price as a critical support level. This suggests that the volatility successfully flushed out weaker hands without triggering widespread panic selling among the newest cohort. The market is now undergoing an efficient chip exchange process, with strong demand absorbing the supply, which is evidenced by the price successfully holding the Short-Term Holder Average Cost of approximately $98,700.
Context
Following sharp market volatility, the central question for many investors is whether the recent dip was a true capitulation that signals a deeper correction, or if strong demand is still present to absorb the selling pressure. The market is uncertain about the conviction level of new entrants and whether they will panic-sell their coins at a loss, which would trigger a cascade.
Analysis
The Short-Term Holder (STH) Average Cost, or Realized Price, measures the average price at which all coins held for less than 155 days were last moved on-chain. It acts as the collective cost basis for the most recent market participants. When the price falls to this level, it tests the conviction of these buyers → a break below suggests panic and capitulation; a hold suggests strong belief and accumulation.
The data shows the Bitcoin price touched a low of $98,900 but immediately held the STH Average Cost of $98,700, meaning recent buyers chose to hold their position rather than realize a loss. This pattern confirms the $98,700 level is now a robust on-chain support, signaling seller exhaustion and a high-conviction base of new buyers.
Parameters
- Short-Term Holder Cost Basis → $98,700 (The average price recent buyers paid for their Bitcoin.)
- Recent Price Low → $98,900 (The exact low BTC touched during the volatility.)
- Major Resistance Zone → $112,000 (The price level where over 600,000 BTC are concentrated, forming a strong selling hurdle.)
Outlook
This insight suggests a near-term consolidation phase is likely, with the market operating in a defined range. The confirmed support at the STH Cost Basis ($98,700) provides a strong floor, but the heavy supply concentration at $112,000 will act as a major “Iron Wall” resistance. The market will need a significant new catalyst to absorb the 600,000 BTC supply at that level. A confirming signal to watch for is a reduction in the $112,000 supply concentration over the next two weeks, indicating it is being absorbed.
Verdict
The Short-Term Holder cost basis held firm, confirming recent buyers have strong conviction and establishing a critical floor for the current market consolidation.
