Briefing
The Bitcoin price has dropped below the average cost basis of all recent buyers, a key structural signal that a necessary market reset is underway. This movement places the short-term investor base into an unrealized loss, which typically increases selling pressure and signals market fatigue. However, this supply is being absorbed by stronger hands, as evidenced by a dramatic behavioral shift across multiple holder cohorts that are now aggressively accumulating. This divergence confirms that while short-term risk is elevated, the structural demand remains robust, with over 100,000 BTC recently leaving exchanges for cold storage.
Context
The common question during a sharp price correction is whether the downturn is a sign of a deeper bear market or simply a necessary cleanout of excessive leverage and weak hands. Investors are wondering if the structural support that defined the previous rally is still intact or if the market has fundamentally broken down. This data helps answer that by revealing the true conviction of different investor groups.
Analysis
The Short-Term Holder (STH) Realized Price is the average price at which all coins held for less than 155 days were last moved on-chain; it represents the average cost basis for recent market entrants. When the market price falls below this metric, it means the average recent buyer is now holding a loss. This condition often triggers a wave of selling, or capitulation, as these less-experienced holders exit the market. The current pattern shows the Bitcoin price has broken below this critical support level.
Simultaneously, the Accumulation Trend Score by Cohort shows that mid-sized and smaller investors have flipped from distribution (selling) to accumulation (buying), indicating strong hands are treating the price drop as a buying opportunity. This structural demand is absorbing the selling pressure from the short-term loss-holders, suggesting the correction is a structural reset, not a collapse.
Parameters
- Short-Term Holder Cost Basis → ~$109,500 (The average price recent buyers paid for their Bitcoin, which the current price is now below)
- Exchange Net Outflow → 100,000 → 120,000 BTC (The volume of Bitcoin moved off exchanges to cold storage in the correction period, signaling long-term conviction)
- Accumulation Trend Score → Shift to accumulation (A metric showing multiple investor groups are actively buying, not selling, into the price drop)
Outlook
This insight suggests the market is currently in a high-volatility, low-conviction phase for recent buyers, but the structural floor is being reinforced by strong, patient capital. The near-term future is likely to remain choppy as the market attempts to clear the remaining short-term seller supply. This process is necessary to establish a healthier base for the next rally. The confirming signal to watch is the Bitcoin price recovering and holding above the Short-Term Holder Cost Basis, which would flip the average recent buyer back into profit and restore market balance.
Verdict
The Bitcoin market is undergoing a structural reset as recent buyers enter loss territory, but strong-handed accumulation is building a robust demand floor.
