Briefing
The Short-Term Holder Realized Profit/Loss Ratio has collapsed to an extreme low of 0.07x, a level that signals a complete capitulation by all recent Bitcoin buyers. This overwhelming loss dominance suggests that the short-term demand and market liquidity have fully evaporated following a period of heavy supply absorption. This is a critical cleansing event, where all speculative risk from the past few months is being flushed out, potentially establishing a structural market bottom. The thesis is proven by the STH Realized P/L Ratio dropping to 0.07x , meaning recent sellers are realizing 14 times more loss than profit.
Context
The average person is wondering if the recent price dip is a healthy correction or the start of a prolonged bear market. The key uncertainty is whether new capital is still flowing in or if the recent price action has scared away all short-term buyers. This data helps answer if the market has truly “washed out” all the weak hands and reset the speculative risk, a necessary step before any sustained rally.
Analysis
The Short-Term Holder Realized Profit/Loss Ratio measures the profitability of coins moved on-chain that were purchased within the last 155 days. This indicator measures the ratio of realized profit to realized loss for this group. A value above 1 means recent sellers are making a net profit; a value below 1 means they are selling at a net loss. The current reading of 0.07x is an extreme signal.
It means for every dollar of profit realized by a short-term seller, fourteen dollars of loss are being realized. This pattern shows a historic level of loss-taking, indicating that the most recent, less-convicted buyers have completely capitulated, which is the final stage of a market de-risking event.
Parameters
- Key Metric ∞ Short-Term Holder Realized Profit/Loss Ratio – Measures the ratio of realized profit to realized loss for coins held less than 155 days.
- Current Value ∞ 0.07x – The ratio of profit to loss for recent sellers, indicating overwhelming loss realization.
- Realized Loss Volume ∞ $403.4M per day (30D-SMA) – The current daily volume of losses being realized on-chain, a level exceeding prior cycle lows.
- Market Range ∞ $81K ∞ $89K – The current fragile price band Bitcoin is trading within as liquidity thins.
Outlook
This extreme capitulation event suggests that the market is now structurally de-risked and a price floor is being established. The immediate future is likely one of low liquidity and consolidation until new demand arrives. The confirming signal to watch for is a sustained decrease in the daily Realized Loss Volume , which would show the selling pressure is finally exhausted. A counter-signal would be if the price breaks below the $81K True Market Mean, suggesting the capitulation phase is not yet complete and a deeper structural re-test is required.
