Briefing
Long-Term Holders (LTHs) are accelerating their distribution efforts, a clear signal that veteran investors are taking significant profits after a major price rally. This profit-taking is evidenced by the Long-Term Holder Net Position Change metric plunging into deeply negative territory, indicating a high volume of aged supply is being sold into the market. This surge in sell-side flow from the most experienced cohort is creating structural friction, which the market is currently absorbing as bulls fiercely defend the psychologically significant $100,000 price level. The single most important data point proving this thesis is the LTH Net Position Change turning sharply negative, showing an accelerating decline in the total supply held by these long-term investors.
Context
The core question for many investors is whether the recent rally is sustainable or if it is running out of steam. As Bitcoin trades near the significant $100,000 mark, the market is wondering if the most seasoned investors → those who have held their coins for years → are confident enough to hold for higher prices or if they view this level as a major profit-taking opportunity. The answer lies in the movement of their supply, which reveals the conviction level of the market’s most patient participants.
Analysis
The key indicator here is the Long-Term Holder (LTH) Net Position Change. This metric measures the 30-day change in the total supply of Bitcoin held by LTHs, defined as coins held for over 155 days. When this metric is positive, LTHs are accumulating, adding to their supply and signaling conviction. When it turns negative, LTHs are distributing, selling their coins and signaling profit-taking or a shift in sentiment.
The recent data shows the LTH Net Position Change has plunged into deeply negative territory, confirming an acceleration in distribution. This means a large volume of “aged supply” → coins that have been dormant for years → is moving onto exchanges. This is a classic bull market friction signal → veteran investors are cashing out, which creates a supply headwind that must be absorbed by new demand to sustain the rally. The current pattern suggests the market is in a critical phase of supply absorption near the $100,000 price.
Parameters
- Key Metric → Long-Term Holder Net Position Change – The 30-day net change in the supply of Bitcoin held by investors who have held their coins for over 155 days.
- Distribution Trend → LTH Net Position Change is deeply negative – Signifies an accelerating rate of selling by veteran investors.
- Price Context → Bitcoin is defending the $100,000 price level – The psychological price point where profit-taking is most concentrated.
- Investor Cohort → Long-Term Holders (LTHs) – Investors who have held their Bitcoin for more than 155 days.
Outlook
This insight suggests the market’s immediate future will be characterized by consolidation as new demand works to absorb the significant sell-side pressure from veteran investors. The structural strength of the rally is being tested by this profit-taking event. For the trend to continue its upward momentum, the LTH distribution must slow down, or new, large-scale demand must step in to absorb the supply without a significant price drop.
A confirming signal to watch for is the Short-Term Holder Realized Price beginning to trend upward, which would indicate new buyers are establishing a higher cost basis and reinforcing the market floor. A counter-signal would be a sharp, sustained break below the $100,000 support level, which could indicate that the veteran selling pressure has overwhelmed current demand.
