Briefing
The most experienced Bitcoin investors are in an aggressive distribution phase, which suggests the market is nearing a major cycle top or entering a prolonged period of structural weakness. This cohort, known as Long-Term Holders, is taking profits at a scale that has only been observed during historical market peaks, effectively injecting significant supply back into the market. The single most important data point proving this distribution is the Long-Term Holder Supply dropping from its peak of 15.75 million BTC to a current 13.6 million BTC, marking the lowest level since early 2023.
Context
The central market question is whether the recent price volatility represents a healthy mid-cycle correction or the beginning of a major structural reversal. Investors are wondering if the recent price dip is a final buying opportunity or a signal that the long-term conviction of the market’s strongest hands is finally breaking down. This data helps answer the question of who is driving the current selling pressure.
Analysis
The Long-Term Holder Supply (LTH Supply) measures the total amount of Bitcoin that has not moved on-chain for 155 days or more. This metric acts as a proxy for “smart money” conviction; when it rises, experienced investors are accumulating and holding, signaling strong belief. When it falls, they are distributing their coins for profit, increasing the available selling supply. The current pattern shows LTH Supply has fallen sharply, indicating a massive profit-taking event.
Over the last two weeks, this cohort sold over 800,000 BTC, representing the deepest distribution event of the entire cycle. This release of old, high-conviction supply is a classic late-cycle behavior that historically precedes a significant market downturn or extended consolidation.
Parameters
- Key Metric – LTH Supply Drop → 2.15 million BTC. (The total reduction from the recent cycle peak to the current Long-Term Holder Supply level.)
- Distribution Volume (Two Weeks) → 803,399 BTC. (The amount of Bitcoin sold by LTHs in the two-week period from November 11 → 25.)
- Distribution Rate (Daily Average) → 53,560 BTC/Day. (The average daily volume of LTH distribution during the peak selling period.)
- Current LTH Supply Level → 13.6 million BTC. (The lowest total LTH supply recorded since early 2023.)
Outlook
This aggressive distribution from veteran holders strongly suggests the market will face a prolonged period of weakness as new capital struggles to absorb the massive supply being released. The near-term outlook is bearish, demanding an extended consolidation phase. A confirming signal to watch for is a sustained rise in the Short-Term Holder Realized Price , which would indicate that new buyers are successfully absorbing the veteran supply and establishing a new, higher price floor.
Verdict
The historic selling by veteran investors confirms a major distribution phase, signaling that the structural bull market strength is exhausted.
