Briefing
On-chain data confirms that Bitcoin’s current price correction is fundamentally driven by a massive, accelerated distribution from its most experienced investors, the Long-Term Holders. This suggests the market is undergoing a necessary structural turnover where old supply is being sold to new hands, but the sheer volume of selling is currently overwhelming new demand. This thesis is proven by the fact that Long-Term Holders have sold an estimated 815,000 BTC over the last 30 days, creating a persistent sell-side imbalance.
Context
The common market uncertainty is whether the recent price drop is a healthy, natural pullback or the start of a deeper, prolonged decline. Investors are wondering if demand has simply vanished or if a specific, structural force is pushing the price down. This data answers the question of who is selling and why the market is struggling to find a stable price floor.
Analysis
The key indicator here is Long-Term Holder (LTH) Distribution, which tracks the spending behavior of coins held for over 155 days. This metric measures the conviction of the market’s most experienced investors; when it rises sharply, it signals that veteran holders are taking profits or exiting positions. The observed pattern shows LTH daily spending has more than doubled since July, reaching approximately 26,000 BTC per day.
This sustained selling pressure is hitting the market at a time when new demand from institutional products and retail buyers has softened. The result is a supply shock ∞ the available Bitcoin supply is growing faster than the market can absorb it, directly causing the price to decline as buyers are forced to pay less.
Parameters
- Long-Term Holder Distribution ∞ The spending rate of coins held for over 155 days.
- 30-Day Distribution Volume ∞ 815,000 BTC – The total Bitcoin sold by veteran holders in the past month.
- Daily Spending Rate ∞ 26,000 BTC/Day – The current average daily volume of Bitcoin being sold by LTHs.
- Resistance Zone ∞ $105K to $110K – The price band where short-term buyers are now in loss and likely to sell at breakeven.
Outlook
This phase suggests the market is in a deep “re-pricing” event, not a collapse. The selling is orderly profit-taking by veterans, a common late-cycle behavior that is necessary to transfer supply to new hands. For the market to stabilize, this distribution must slow down, or new, powerful demand must emerge. The confirming signal to watch for is a significant increase in institutional ETF inflows, which would indicate new demand is finally absorbing the veteran supply.
