Briefing
The core insight is that veteran Bitcoin investors are aggressively taking profits, initiating a massive supply distribution event near the $100,000 price level. This suggests the market is entering a critical absorption phase where new demand must match or exceed this historic selling to sustain the rally. The most important data point is the Long-Term Holder (LTH) Net Position Change moving into a deeply negative zone, signifying a scale of profit realization not seen in recent cycles.
Context
The average investor is wondering if the price surge past $100,000 is a sign of unstoppable momentum or a final opportunity for smart money to exit. This data answers the question of whether the foundational holders of Bitcoin are still accumulating or if they view this price as a local top. The market needs to know if the selling pressure is exhausted or if a structural conflict between veteran profit-taking and new demand is emerging.
Analysis
The Long-Term Holder (LTH) Net Position Change is an on-chain indicator that tracks the 30-day change in the total supply held by wallets that have not moved their coins for over 155 days. This metric measures the conviction of the market’s most patient investors. When the LTH Net Position Change is highly negative, it means these veteran investors are selling their coins and realizing significant profits.
The current pattern shows a rapid decrease in LTH supply, confirming a significant negative reading. This suggests that the highest-conviction investors, who bought Bitcoin in prior bear markets, are now distributing their coins to new buyers at the current high price, creating immense overhead resistance that must be absorbed for the price to move decisively higher.
Parameters
- Key Metric – LTH Net Position Change ∞ The 30-day change in Bitcoin supply held by wallets older than 155 days, currently in a “clearly negative zone”.
- Distribution Trigger Price ∞ The price level where profit-taking is intensifying, specifically “around the $100,000 level”.
- Distribution Scale ∞ The distribution peaks are described as “never seen before”.
- Short-Term Holder Status ∞ Short-Term Holders (new buyers) are “largely realizing losses” on recent price moves.
Outlook
This profit-taking from veteran holders creates a significant structural headwind for the market in the near term, likely forcing a period of consolidation or correction as the supply is absorbed. New demand must be exceptionally strong to overcome this historic distribution. A confirming signal to watch for is a sharp rebound in the Stablecoin Supply Ratio (SSR) , which would indicate that the capital from the veteran selling is being quickly re-deployed by new buyers, suggesting the demand is strong enough to absorb the supply.
