Briefing
The most experienced investors are aggressively selling their Bitcoin holdings into the recent price rally, a classic sign of late-stage market distribution. This suggests the market’s current demand is fragile, primarily fueled by speculative short-term buyers who are absorbing the supply from conviction-based holders. The thesis is proven by the Long-Term Holder Net Position Change, which has plunged to a net outflow of roughly 194,600 BTC in the last month, confirming a significant reduction in long-held supply.
Context
The central question for investors is whether the recent price recovery is a genuine continuation of the bull market or merely a temporary bounce before a deeper correction. The average person wonders if the big, smart money is still buying the dip or if they are secretly using the strength to exit their positions. This on-chain data helps answer that by revealing the true behavior of the most patient market participants.
Analysis
The key indicator is the Long-Term Holder Net Position Change (LTH-NPC). This metric measures the 30-day change in the supply held by wallets that have not moved their coins for over 155 days. When the LTH-NPC is positive, experienced investors are accumulating supply; when it is negative, they are selling. The current pattern shows the LTH-NPC has been negative all month and recently worsened to a net outflow of 194,600 BTC.
This means that nearly 200,000 Bitcoin, which were held with high conviction, have been moved and likely sold. This massive distribution from the strongest hands into a price bounce confirms that the underlying market structure is vulnerable, as short-term, speculative demand is currently the only force absorbing this supply.
Parameters
- Long-Term Holder Net Change → Net outflow of 194,600 BTC in the last month. This is the total amount of Bitcoin removed from the long-term holder cohort’s balance.
- LTH-STH SOPR Ratio → Reached 2.63 , the highest level since August. This compares the average profit taken by long-term sellers versus short-term sellers, confirming LTHs are taking large profits.
- Short-Term Holder Supply → Risen to 2.63 million BTC. This shows speculative traders are now holding a larger, more fragile portion of the supply.
Outlook
This distribution suggests the market is in a late-cycle phase, and the near-term future is likely characterized by consolidation and heightened volatility. The massive supply released by veteran investors must be fully absorbed before a sustained uptrend can resume. The confirming signal to watch for a market reset would be a sharp spike in the Short-Term Holder Realized Loss , which would indicate that the recent buyers have capitulated and the selling is exhausted.
Verdict
The data confirms that the most experienced investors are actively distributing their supply, creating a structural headwind that demands market consolidation.
