Briefing
The market has suffered a structural breakdown confirmed by the price falling below the Short-Term Holder Cost Basis, which means the average recent buyer is now holding a loss. This technical weakness is compounded by a concerning behavioral shift → veteran investors, known as Long-Term Holders, are distributing their supply not into strength during rallies, but quietly into weakness as the price ranges and drifts lower. This “selling into weakness” suggests a deeper fatigue and reduced conviction among the most seasoned cohort, significantly increasing the probability of further downside toward lower structural supports. The most critical data point proving this fatigue is the net decline of approximately 300,000 Bitcoin in Long-Term Holder supply since July 2025.
Context
After a significant price correction, the core question for market participants is whether the downturn is a healthy mid-cycle reset or a more serious structural shift that signals a prolonged consolidation or bear market. Average investors are wondering if the recent selling is just “weak hands” panicking or if the most committed, veteran holders are also losing faith and exiting the market. The data provides a clear answer by tracking the behavior of these two distinct investor groups.
Analysis
The Short-Term Holder (STH) Cost Basis is the average price at which all coins moved in the last 155 days were acquired, acting as the primary support line for recent buyers. When the price falls below this level, it confirms that the market’s newest participants are underwater, creating pressure to sell and a structural breakdown. Simultaneously, we track Long-Term Holders (LTHs), who are coins held for over 155 days and represent the highest conviction investors. Historically, LTHs sell into price strength to realize profits near cycle peaks.
The current pattern shows a “quiet distribution” where LTH supply has been declining for months, with selling continuing even as the price dropped to $100,000. This behavioral change → selling into weakness instead of strength → indicates that the market is dealing with more than just a liquidity vacuum; it is facing a structural loss of conviction from its most stable investor base.
Parameters
- Short-Term Holder Cost Basis → ~$112,500. This is the average acquisition price for all coins moved in the last 155 days; the price is currently trading below it.
- Long-Term Holder Supply Change → -300,000 BTC since July 2025. This is the net amount of Bitcoin removed from the long-term holder cohort due to spending outpacing coin maturation.
- LTH Distribution Behavior → Selling into weakness. This contrasts with previous cycle behavior where LTHs sold only into strength (rallies).
Outlook
This combination of structural breakdown and veteran fatigue suggests the market is not yet ready for a sustained move upward. The immediate outlook points to a high probability of further downside, with the price likely testing lower structural supports. The next critical support to watch is the Active Investors’ Realized Price, which is currently near $88,500. A confirming signal for a trend reversal would be the price decisively reclaiming and holding the Short-Term Holder Cost Basis, signaling that recent buyers are back in profit and confidence has returned.
Verdict
The quiet distribution of veteran investors selling into market weakness confirms a deep structural fatigue that increases the risk of further price decline.
