Briefing
The most experienced Bitcoin investors, known as Long-Term Holders (LTHs), are in one of the largest distribution phases ever recorded, suggesting a significant profit-taking cycle is underway. This selling, however, is being systematically absorbed by new, large-scale institutional and corporate entities, confirming a structural shift in market control. This absorption prevents a full-scale capitulation and indicates a strong demand floor is in place. Since March 2024, LTHs have sold approximately 1.4 million BTC, but the net capital inflow remains positive at an estimated $102 billion, demonstrating the market’s underlying strength.
Context
For months, the market has been wondering whether the recent price volatility is a sign of widespread panic or if the most experienced investors are finally capitulating. The core uncertainty is → who is selling, and more importantly, who is buying? The data helps answer if the market is fundamentally weakening or simply undergoing a massive, healthy transfer of wealth.
Analysis
The Long-Term Holder (LTH) metric tracks coins that have not moved for over 155 days, representing investors with the strongest conviction. When this cohort begins a “distribution phase,” it means they are selling their old, highly profitable coins. This is not a panic signal, but a major profit-taking event, as LTHs have offloaded an estimated 1.4 million BTC since March 2024. The crucial insight is the counter-force → this supply is being systematically bought by institutional vehicles, primarily U.S. Spot Bitcoin ETFs, and corporate treasuries.
This institutional demand has absorbed a significant portion of the veteran selling, resulting in a net capital inflow of $102 billion into the asset. This pattern shows that market control is shifting from old, conviction-based holders to new, large-scale, structurally-driven buyers, setting a higher demand floor.
Parameters
- Long-Term Holders Sold → 1.4 million BTC. This is the total amount of Bitcoin sold by veteran investors (coins held for over 155 days) since March 2024.
- U.S. Spot ETF Inflows → ~$78.05 billion. This is the estimated capital accumulated by institutional investors via ETFs during the same LTH selling period.
- Estimated Net Capital Inflow → $102 billion. This figure accounts for LTH selling, ETF inflows, and corporate treasury accumulation, confirming a net increase in capital.
Outlook
This structural shift suggests the market has a new, resilient foundation of demand driven by institutional and corporate capital. The heavy distribution from veteran holders is a one-time supply event that is being systematically cleared by deep-pocketed buyers. This process is healthy and resets the market for the next leg up.
A confirming signal to watch is a slowdown in LTH distribution coupled with a sustained, positive daily inflow into institutional products like the Bitcoin ETFs. A counter-signal would be a sudden, sharp decline in corporate treasury holdings, which would suggest this new demand base is weakening.
Verdict
Institutional and corporate demand is systematically absorbing veteran supply, confirming a structural shift in Bitcoin ownership that builds a stronger market floor.
