Briefing
The Bitcoin Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) has dropped to 1.35, marking its lowest level since early 2024. This indicates a complete reset of market profitability, signifying that long-term holders are taking fewer profits and selling pressure is nearing exhaustion. Historically, such low SOPR levels often precede the formation of a local market bottom, potentially laying the groundwork for a healthy upward market movement.
Context
Before this development, many market participants were questioning the sustainability of recent price movements and whether the market had truly found a floor. The prevalent concern revolved around whether selling pressure would continue to drive prices lower or if the market was poised for a rebound.
Analysis
The Bitcoin SOPR ratio, an on-chain indicator that assesses whether the market is primarily in a state of profit or loss, has reached 1.35. This decline signifies that, on average, Bitcoins being moved on the network are transacting at lower profit margins, or even at a loss, relative to their acquisition price. Consider this akin to a retailer liquidating inventory → once the most profitable items are sold, subsequent sales occur at reduced margins.
This continues until sellers are no longer willing to part with their assets at a loss. This reduction in profitable selling suggests that those inclined to take profits have largely done so, resulting in fewer sellers eager to offload their Bitcoin and consequently easing downward price pressure.
Parameters
- Bitcoin SOPR Ratio → 1.35. This on-chain metric measures the average profit or loss of all spent outputs on the Bitcoin network.
- Bitcoin Price at Event → $89,700. This was the approximate Bitcoin price when the SOPR ratio reached its lowest point.
Outlook
Moving forward, investors should monitor Bitcoin’s price for signs of stabilization and potential accumulation around current levels. A sustained upward trend following this SOPR reset could confirm the establishment of a local market bottom, indicating renewed investor confidence and a potential shift towards a more bullish market phase.
