Briefing
The US Federal Reserve recently cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 4.25 percent, marking its first reduction in 2025. This move initially sparked a “risk-on” rally in the crypto market, pushing Bitcoin briefly above the US$117,000 level and increasing the total crypto market capitalization to approximately US$4.19 trillion, a 1.6 percent rise in 24 hours, with trading volumes swelling by US$210 billion. However, this initial surge was short-lived, as the market subsequently pulled back and entered a consolidation phase, failing to sustain the rally despite the dovish monetary policy.
Context
Before this news, many in the market were wondering if a Federal Reserve rate cut would provide a clear catalyst for a sustained crypto rally, especially after a period where Bitcoin had been forming a rising wedge. Investors were keenly watching to see if lower interest rates would encourage more capital to flow into riskier assets like cryptocurrencies, or if other factors would temper the enthusiasm.
Analysis
The rate cut was intended to stimulate economic activity, typically making riskier assets more attractive. Initially, the crypto market reacted as expected, with prices rising and trading volumes increasing, reflecting a surge of buying pressure. However, this momentum quickly faded.
The market encountered strong resistance around the US$117,000 level for Bitcoin, and a significant US$3.5 billion in Bitcoin options expiry likely added selling pressure, causing the market to consolidate. Think of it like a spring being compressed → the rate cut released some pressure, causing an initial bounce, but other forces, like profit-taking and technical resistance, quickly limited how high it could jump.
Parameters
- Fed Rate Cut → The US Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 4.25 percent, its first cut of 2025.
- Bitcoin Price Movement → Bitcoin briefly broke above US$117,000, then consolidated between US$116,000 and US$117,400, showing a 1% decrease in 24 hours on September 19.
- Total Market Cap → The total crypto market cap climbed to roughly US$4.19 trillion, up 1.6 percent in 24 hours following the rate cut.
- Trading Volume → Trading volumes swelled by around US$210 billion after the rate cut.
- Bitcoin Options Expiry → US$3.5 billion in Bitcoin options were set to expire, weighing on upside potential.
Outlook
For the next few days and weeks, watch how Bitcoin interacts with the US$117,000 resistance level. A decisive break above this point could signal renewed bullish momentum, while continued rejection could indicate further consolidation or a deeper pullback. Also, observe the overall market sentiment and any shifts in institutional inflows, as these will provide clues on whether the market can build a more sustainable rally.
Signal Acquired from → CoinMarketCap
