The valuation of digital tokens based on the occurrence or non-occurrence of specific future events. This pricing mechanism is prevalent in prediction markets and certain types of derivatives. The token’s worth fluctuates according to probabilities assigned to the contingent outcomes. Such valuation models require robust data feeds and transparent event resolution.
Context
Conditional token pricing is a key element in understanding decentralized prediction markets and novel financial instruments within crypto news. Reports might discuss how these tokens enable speculation on real-world events or provide hedging opportunities. The accuracy and integrity of the underlying conditions and their resolution are central to the system’s reliability and public trust.
An LLM-driven semantic methodology maps complex logical dependencies between prediction markets, revealing $40M in extractable value and systemic inefficiency.
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