Realized Cap Crossover

Definition ∞ A Realized Cap Crossover is a technical analysis event in Bitcoin markets where the market capitalization surpasses the realized capitalization, often signaling a shift in market sentiment. Market capitalization represents the current price multiplied by circulating supply, while realized capitalization sums the value of each Bitcoin at the price it last moved on-chain. When market cap exceeds realized cap after a prolonged period below it, it can indicate that the market has recovered its aggregate cost basis. This event suggests a potential market recovery.
Context ∞ The realized cap crossover is a closely watched on-chain metric used by analysts to identify potential structural market bottoms and the commencement of new bull market phases for Bitcoin. It provides insight into the aggregate profitability of the market and the conviction of long-term holders. Observing this crossover can help confirm a transition from a bear market accumulation phase to a sustained price appreciation period, offering a data-driven perspective on market cycles.